When the Denver Nuggets brought in Marvin Bagley III as the replacement for Jonas Valanciunas as the backup center to Nikola Jokic, there was some skepticism. After all, the 6-foot-10 former number two overall pick of the 2018 draft had become a bit of a journeyman over the last three years. But Bagley's numbers have always been fairly consistent when he's gotten minutes, and the Nuggets need to start finding ways to give him more floor time based on his defense alone.
Bagley's basically only seeing time as the backup to Jokic, and thus, he's only averaging 12 minutes per game. He's making the most of them, however, and he's averaging 4.7 points and 3.8 rebounds, which translates to a per-36 of 14.0 points and 11.5 boards.
But the biggest reason Bagley deserves more time isn't even to spell Jokic more, who is averaging a staggering 37 minutes across the first games. No, the biggest reason to get Bagley more floor time is because his defense has been dramatically improving over the years, and he's statistically one of the top defenders in the paint to start the year.
Bagley should play more because of his defense
Bagley's been playing really hard, and his motor doesn't stop. His athleticism at the backup center spot has been a breath of fresh air compared to the immobile Valanciunas last year. But besides giving Bagley a few more minutes to get Jokic a longer breather, Bagley needs to slot in next to Jokic at the four so the Nuggets can take advantage of his defense. He's only allowing 38.5% on defensive field goals.
Bagley's been playing such good defense that he's currently ranked third in eFG% (expected field goal) vs. expectation, right behind the defensive juggernaut Trevon Brazile, who has been getting plenty of run at the four and three. But it doesn't stop there. Bagley is second in 2P% vs. expectation, right behind one of the better defenders in the league, Isaiah Stewart of the Memphis Grizzlies. Quite simply, the Bagley/Brazile combo in the non-Jokic minutes has been outstanding.
Giving Bagley closer to 20 minutes, with some at the four, would bolster the defense, and it would allow the Nuggets to give Aaron Gordon a bit more rest to help preserve him for the playoffs. Bagley may not stretch the floor like Gordon, but the tradeoff is potentially running Gordon into the ground too early in the year. Plus, Bagley excels in the pick-and-roll and can even run it with Jokic or Jamal Murray.
Clearly, Bagley's on pace to be the best backup center that Jokic's ever had defensively. And the Nuggets need to find a way to take advantage of Bagley's new tricks.
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