The assumption for most of this season has been that if Nikola Jokic can just meet the minimum threshold of 65-games played, he’ll be at the top of the MVP list. But as he missed 16 in a row, it seemed like even while hitting the number, he’d probably fall short of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, simply due to the massive difference in durability.
But that gap has gotten a lot thinner recently as SGA has now missed 10 games, and yet, the MVP race hasn’t gotten much closer. The biggest reason why? Jokic’s defense has been downright bad lately.
His counting stats haven’t really dipped, but the Joker just hasn’t put in the effort on the defensive end, becoming a liability as a “rim protector” as teams have gotten whatever they wanted against Denver, especially recently.
Jokic hasn't been good on the defensive end
Aaron Gordon’s return will hopefully help, but the team’s defense has cratered since the opening weeks, only perking up during the stretch when Jokic was out. In the past, his defense has at least been solid, and they’ve gotten by with such an elite offense, but even that hasn’t been enough this season.Â
For the season, Denver still has the best offense in the league, but the defense is 22nd. They’re just 39-25 on the season, tied in the loss column for sixth place in the West. They’re just 7-9 since the Joker returned from his knee injury, and they’re just 15th in Net Rating during that span.
He’s still the best player in the world, and the guy you’d take in a one-game setting, but whether it’s his knee, his wrist, or his general disposition, he’s not playing his best recently, and he especially hasn’t been bringing it on the defensive end.
Sam Vecenie and Bryce Simon make clear case for SGA > Jokic
On the most recent episode of the Game Theory podcast, Sam Vecenie and Bryce Simon gave their MVP picks, and both agreed it’s SGA over Jokic, pretty clearly. Simon described Jokic’s defense as “Really, really bad, even for him recently”, and Vecenie explained that his play on that end has become the differentiator for him.
Shai has come back from his injury, and he and the Thunder haven’t missed a beat as they’ve maintained a 49-15 record, best in the NBA, while Jokic has come back and the Nuggets have really struggled.
Again, this isn’t a knock on Jokic; he’s doing everything he can to keep his team afloat. Hopefully, once the playoffs start, he and his teammates will be healthy, they can crank it up to another gear, and win a title. But MVP is a regular-season award, and the bottom line is that SGA has played more games, the Thunder are a lot better, and Jokic’s defense simply hasn’t been good enough.