With each passing day, it becomes clearer that the Nuggets misplayed their hand this past offseason, extending Christian Braun for five years, $125 million, while barely even negotiating with Peyton Watson, allowing him to play out the final year of his deal and hit restricted free agency this summer.
Braun has had a rough season, which a nasty ankle injury has completely derailed, while Watson has thrived, breaking out as a budding young two-way star. The Nuggets probably could have signed P-Wat to a team-friendly, multi-year deal last fall that would have him in Denver for the next four or five years at a number around $10 million per season, which would already be looking like perhaps the best contract in the entire league.
But obviously, everything has changed, and Watson is going to get an absolute bag this summer, either from the Nuggets or someone else. He has proven to be an offensive engine, taking on a lead initiator role with Nikola Jokic out of the lineup and looking more than capable of carrying that load.
Add that playmaking, shooting, and explosion off the bounce on offense to his athleticism, youth, and defense, and you’re looking at a player that should be coveted by every team in the league. On the open market, he’s going to command a big-time salary, and Nate Duncan, on his Dunc’d On Podcast, suggested that deal may reach as high as $30 million per season.
Nuggets going to have to get creative to keep Watson in Denver
This creates a bunch of issues for the Nuggets, who can ill-afford to sign another player to a big extension. That deal would put them way above the second apron, and based on everything we know about ownership, don’t expect that to happen.
Losing Watson for nothing in free agency would be gutting, and with his breakout this year, they need to make keeping him around long-term a priority. But that almost certainly means they’re going to have to send out some big contracts in the offseason.
Trading any of Jokic, Jamal Murray, or Aaron Gordon seems like a nonstarter, so that leaves Braun or Cam Johnson. At least one of them has to go, in what will be a borderline salary dump, to have any chance of paying Watson.
Even then, there’s no guarantee another team won’t offer Peyton a deal the Nuggets can’t, or won’t match. And it’s possible he feels disrespected after last offseason, and would simply rather go to a team where he can have a more prominent role without needing multiple injuries to occur.
So while it’s obviously great for the Nuggets that Watson has had this kind of season, the timing is going to create some major problems. They’ll have some options, but all of them will be a bit uncomfortable. When ownership isn’t willing to pony up top dollar for an elite contender, that’s what happens. No matter how this season plays out, very difficult and uncomfortable decisions are coming.