On Tuesday, Nikola Jokic informed the Nuggets that he will not be signing any contract extension this summer and will instead wait to begin negotiations next offseason. While there are financial reasons that this decision makes sense, it’s also extremely scary for fans of the Nuggets and makes the three-time MVP more likely to leave Denver than ever.
The most likely outcome remains that Jokic plays out this season, then signs a three-year max extension next offseason that should be worth roughly $282 million, increasing his earning potential by $80 million. That would keep the Joker in Denver until he’s 36, and all but cement him as a career Nugget.
Yet, the fact remains, Jokic could have extended yesterday and guaranteed himself an extra three years and $212 million, and he chose not to. That means after this coming season, he will have just one more guaranteed year on his contract before he’ll have a player option for the 2027-28 season.
Historically, when players are set to enter the final year of their contract is when things really start heating up, the trade rumors get fast and furious, and fans are forced to grapple with the reality of superstar players leaving for greener pastures.
Nuggets must prove to Jokic they are all in
We’ve had no indication that Jokic is unhappy or would ever want to leave Denver, but at the same time, he’s now 30 years old and may see the light at the end of the tunnel. He’s absolutely in his prime, but the last two seasons could have gone better from a team perspective.
He was overtasked due to weak rosters, and he and his teammates wore down, bowing out in round two of the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. The organization clearly realized they were failing Jokic and wasting his prime because they cleaned house, firing the coach and GM, and now they’ve turned over half the roster this offseason.
On paper, the recent moves seem great, and the Nuggets are poised to enter the 2025-26 season as one of the favorites to win it all, along with the Thunder. But what if the pieces don’t fit as well as we expect?
Maybe Cam Johnson won’t be an upgrade on Michael Porter Jr. Maybe Jonas Valanciunas doesn’t come to Denver, or worse, he does come but tanks the energy and chemistry. Maybe Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown are more washed than we think. Maybe the young guys aren’t ready for a bigger opportunity.
Those are a lot of maybes, and that’s not even factoring in the health of the other veteran stars, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. Neither of whom is getting any younger, nor has been the face of health in their careers.
No reason to panic yet for Nuggets
As of right now, there’s no reason to panic, and the expectation is that Jokic will sign next summer and be a Nugget for life. But there’s suddenly a lot of pressure on next season. If the team ducks the luxury tax, which is in play (and wouldn’t be a bad strategic move), that could send the wrong message to Jokic as well.
His deciding he wants to leave is still very much a long shot, but no matter how you spin it, that chance got a lot bigger with his decision on Tuesday.