As the Denver Nuggets approach the 2024-25 NBA season’s final stretch, their final handful of games will tell us a lot about the team heading into the playoffs. With a strength of schedule (SOS) of .537 — ranking as the fifth most difficult according to Tankathon — the Nuggets must battle several tough opponents at home and on the road to secure a top-two playoff position.
Finishing second and having homecourt advantage in round two would be spectacular, given the Nuggets’ 20-9 record at Ball Arena to this point of the season. Fortunately for the Mile High crew, their primary competition for the Western Conference’s No. 2 seed, the Los Angeles Lakers, fortunately, faces an even more arduous road ahead.
Let’s look at the remaining schedule and how the team might approach the season’s stretch run of 12 home and nine road games.
Breaking Down the Remaining Schedule
This week starts slowly with a pair of home tilts against the Kings without Domantas Sabonis and the reeling Phoenix Suns before the Nuggets fly south for a pair of nationally televised battles with the West’s best, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander appears to be running away with this season’s Most Valuable Player award, those back-to-back road matchups against OKC could leave a lasting impression in voter’s minds. If Nikola Jokic goes crazy and the Nuggets win both games, might the odds swing in our Serbian sensation’s favor?
The Thunder’s length and athleticism can disrupt any offense, but the Nuggets amassed 124 against OKC in an early November win. Can they maintain that scoring potential with Chet Holmgren back in the lineup? How the Nuggets look in these two will go a long way in determining our collective confidence in a lengthy playoff run.
Following that, Denver returns to the Mile High City for a three-game stand against two tough opponents — Minnesota and the Lakers — and the lowly Washington Wizards.
After falling to the Timberwolves in seven games last postseason and dropping two of the first three matchups this year, the Nuggets will look to reestablish their dominance. Anthony Edwards remains a tough guard on the perimeter, and the combination of Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid/Julius Randle can slow Jokic while lanky defenders like Jaden McDaniels and Nickel Alexander-Walker hound Murray.
The March 12 matchup will show whether the Wolves remain a matchup the Nugs should avoid this postseason or if Michael Malone and the coaching staff have figured some things out against Minnesota.
Despite winning 13 of the previous 14 against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, the Nuggets dropped a Feb. 22 game at home with Luka Doncic in a new-look lineup. Will Denver get back on track in a Friday night affair, or will Redick’s game plan contain Jokic’s dominant impact again? How the Nuggets adjusted over three weeks remains top of mind for me.
JJ Redick said the group’s “conviction” to execute the game plan was “excellent.”
— Jovan Buha (@jovanbuha) February 23, 2025
Redick notes he hasn’t slept since the Portland game on Thursday in preparation for this game. He said he and his staff spent a lot of time preparing for Denver on both sides of the ball.
The alarm bells started ringing for most of us following that loss to the Wizards earlier this season. Dropping another one to the Wiz here — even on the SEGABABA — would signal a similar sentiment.
Up next: the longest road trip left on the schedule. Denver starts the week in San Francisco against the resurgent Warriors on March 15 before games against the Lakers in L.A., the Blazers in Portland and the Rockets in Houston. Splitting the road trip feels doable.
After the four-game roadie, the Nuggets return to Ball Arena to close out March, with home tilts against the Bulls, Bucks and Jazz before hosting the Timberwolves and Spurs to open April.
I would feel reassured if the Nuggets got through March at 9-5 or better. That record would leave them at 48-27 ahead of April’s seven-game slate.
In the wake of the aforementioned home games against Minnesota and San Antonio — oh god, another late-season game against the Spurs — Denver yo-yos between home and road the rest of the year: at Golden State, home against Indiana, at Sacramento, Memphis at home and Houston on the road.
I’d like to see a 53-win finish, but there are bigger fish to fry than battling the Lakers, Grizzlies and (maybe) Rockets for seeding.
Health > Seeding
To me, the team needs to finish the season close to fully healthy, not killing itself for higher seeding. Like I said, the second spot would be nice, but look how far it got them last year. Ahead of the title run, the Nuggets looked horrible in March and April but flipped the switch in round one against Minnesota.
There’s good and bad news on the injury front. Bad: Julian Strawther is out four weeks — and likely won’t reclaim his spot in the rotation with such little time to ramp up before the postseason. Good: Peyton Watson hinted at a return to the lineup this week, and Vlatko Cancar was upgraded to questionable. That news, combined with Zeke Nnaji’s excellent recent play, means the team should feel comfortable giving Aaron Gordon a break until he’s more than ready to return.
A healthy Gordon is a massive difference-maker playing next to Jokic, so Malone will have to get creative deploying Nnaji and reintegrating Watson and eventually Gordon as they round back into form. Will we see more P-Wat on the perimeter? Does Nnaji stake his claim for a spot in the playoff rotation? How does Jalen Pickett fit, given Strawther’s injury?
As has been his challenge all year, Malone must manage a roster with six starting-caliber players while navigating injuries and finding rotations that work. Finding creative solutions will help the team strike an effective balance between winning and staying healthy over a long playoff run.
It’s Go Time
As the witticism says, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.” And it’s go time for our Denver Nuggets. The challenging remaining SOS will undoubtedly test the team’s resilience, but it also presents a golden opportunity to build momentum and confidence heading into the playoffs.
If you ask me, this stretch goes beyond securing wins — it’s about refining their identity while proving they can contend with the league’s best. Despite this demanding path to the postseason, the Jokic-era Nuggets typically embody that resilient mantra.
Let’s see whether they “get going” or the going remains too tough.