It’s almost time, folks. The playoffs are here, and the Nuggets will be starting their quest for a title in mere hours. We’ve done all the previewing and hit on all the different angles and storylines, now it’s time to watch the games unfold and the chess match that will happen back and forth between two of the league’s best teams.
The Nuggets will win if…
Denver needs Jamal Murray to be healthy and to make an impact. If he can get back to the level of “Bubble Murray” or Jamal from the 2023 title run, with his two-man game with Jokic wreaking havoc, the Nuggets are going to be in great shape.
The Nuggets are going to need a great defensive effort across the board in this series, too, especially from Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun. If Braun can contain James Harden and Gordon can handle Kawhi Leonard, the Nuggets' defense can stay out of rotation and make things tough on LA.
There’s been a lot of talk about the improvement of Ivica Zubac this season, and rightfully so, but the Nuggets need Nikola Jokic to dominate that matchup. He needs to be the best player on the floor and control these games. If Zuba isn’t able to slow down the Joker, Denver has to like their chances.
Finally, the Nuggets need their role players to show up and make shots. There are so many question marks on this roster and guys who have looked great at times and terrible at others. But if guys like Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, and even Michael Porter Jr. can show up and give the Nuggets consistent minutes, and David Adelman can push the right buttons and find guys who will hit their open looks, Denver will be sitting pretty.
The Clippers will win if…
The Clippers are going to attack Murray and MPJ early and often, and if they can generate those mismatches and take advantage, they’ll get a lot of easy offense. Especially if Murray isn’t 100%, he’s going to be picked on relentlessly, and the Clippers have a chance to make the Denver defense look very bad.
If Kawhi Leonard can stay on the floor and channel the Kawhi of old (as we’ve seen for the past months), that makes this team a whole different animal. We haven’t seen it in several years, but we all know Leonard is capable of being the best player in the NBA playoffs.
James Harden has had some suspect playoff moments in the past, but has been steady as ever this season. If he can keep breaking down the defense, creating offense for his team, and hitting shots, the Nuggets won’t have a lot of answers.
And if Zubac is able to make Jokic work on both ends, that will be a major factor. The Clippers need to involve him heavily on offense and make Jokic defend hard for the entire game. Big Zu also needs to crash the glass hard and at least do a commendable job of defending Jokic without fouling. If he can make some headway in that matchup, that’s a big win for LA.
The Pick: Nuggets in 7
This may be the most evenly matched first-round matchup, and it feels like almost any outcome is in play. I’m choosing to be optimistic, to assume Murray is healthy, and to believe in the new vibes and energy under David Adelman.
I think the Nuggets come out with a lot of energy and stifle the Clippers, making them look old by the end of the series. It’s going to be a back-and-forth battle, with some great coaching and adjustments, but ultimately, I like the Nuggets at home to get by behind their two best players in a tightly contested game 7 in Ball Arena. Let’s go!!!