He hasn't been himself lately. Nikola Jokic, while still playing well, has not been playing how we expect him to play. He isn't dominating in the clutch at all, quite the opposite, and it's that terrible play late in games that's going to cost him the MVP just as much as the NBA's 65-game rule, all but locking it up for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the current favorite to win the NBA's most prestigious award.
Brian Windhorst was debating SGA versus Jokic on NBA Today before the showdown in Oklahoma City that saw the Thunder prevail, resulting in another clutch loss for the Nuggets. Windy brought up the fact that in the win in the prior game against Boston, Jokic "missed 17 shots in that game."
Which is uncharacteristic for Jokic, and it's becoming an alarming pattern. He missed 16 shots in the overtime loss to the Thunder, and he's shooting just 51% since he returned from injury, down from 67% before he got hurt.
SGA is pulling away from Jokic
"A couple of weeks ago, before Jokic got hurt the first time, I thought the Nuggets were in a great position," Windhorst said, referencing the team's success. But the Nuggets' late-game blunders have put a spotlight on Jokic's problems, and they only seem to be getting worse.
Jokic's not the same player in the clutch that he was in seasons past. He's currently rocking an eye-popping 135.6 defensive rating in the clutch, basically a 180-degree turn from his 98.4 in 2023-24. What happened? He's looked slow on defense, but is that the whole story?
It's allowed SGA to pull away and put himself now clearly ahead of the Joker, despite his insane numbers this year. It's just too bad those insane numbers haven't translated to clutch-time performance.
Jokic's last hope likely relies on the Nuggets' performance
Jokic and the Nuggets have to start winning the close games if he's going to have a shot at the MVP now. The Nuggets are six-and-a-half games back of the Spurs for the second seed in the Western Conference and are not likely to overcome the gap.
Meanwhile, Shai is on the best team in the NBA. A team that just beat the Nuggets with him on the bench in overtime due to a minutes restriction. It was his first game back after missing nine straight with an injury.
It's an alarming pattern for the Nuggets that they need to correct soon. Even with Aaron Gordon's imminent return, they'll only have 20 games, at most, to gel together before the playoffs start.