The Nuggets' defensive struggles have been apparent all season. They're ranked 22nd in defensive rating and allow the 17th most points in the NBA, at 116.1 per game. And thanks to an advanced statistic, a glaring hole stands out in the Nuggets' rotation that could be pointing to why the Nuggets have been in more close games to begin with.
Jonas Valanciunas has played 14.5 minutes per game for the Nuggets in 45 appearances, almost exclusively as relief for Nikola Jokic. He's averaging 9 points and 5.2 rebounds, but his defensive rating, a defensive metric that measures how many points a player or team allows per 100 possessions, is 118.3. Only Jamal Murray ranks lower on the Nuggets, with a 118.4.
However, Murray has an offensive rating, which is the opposite and accounts for how many points a team scores per 100 possessions, of 124.5, good for a 6.1 net rating, simply the difference between offensive and defensive rating.
And net rating is what sticks out most for Big Val. He's currently -3, worst on the team for players who are in head coach David Adelman's standard rotation.
Jokic has a net rating of 12.2. The Nuggets are 15 points worse per 100 possessions with Big Val spelling the Joker. That's not good.
And another advanced metric, Box Plus/Minus, has Valanciunas as a -1.1. Jokic, the all-time leader in the category, leads the league again for the 6th straight season with 15.0, his highest career mark.
Valanciunas had an incredible stat in the Nuggets record win
The Nuggets beat the Blazers by a final score of 157-103. The 54-point margin of victory was the largest ever recorded by the Nuggets. And Valanciunas still somehow found a way to have a negative plus/minus in the box score. Big Val went -1.
Julian Strawther tied a franchise record with a +48. Jokic had a +40, Christian Braun and Jamal Murray +39. Even Spencer Jones had a +31 off the bench. Newly acquired two-way player KJ Simpson went +14 in 7 minutes of garbage time!
But somehow, in almost 12 minutes, a full quarter of play, the Blazers outscored the Nuggets with Valanciunas on the floor. That's not a fluke. That's a pattern that's been happening all year, backed by stats.
Hopefully, Coach Adelman and the coaching staff get creative and come up with a solution to this problem. You get leads with Joker and lose them with Valanciunas, or you get a deeper hole to come back from, something the Nuggets have had to do many times this year.