The Denver Nuggets look tired, and it's showing itself as they battle for playoff position during the dog days of March.
During their recent, disappointing three game homestand, the Nuggets got punched in the teeth versus Minnesota, and then needed late game heroics to survive against the shorthanded Los Angeles Lakers, who were without four of their five starters. In Saturday's loss to the Wizards, the Nuggets blew a 14 point first quarter lead, and gave up 126 points to a team that normally averages 108.9 per game.
While it's fair to pin the Nuggets recent woes on bad defense and inconsistent bench production, there's something else that could explain the Nuggets collapse against the second worst team in the league.
The underlying issue?
Michael Malone is playing his starters way too many minutes.
Playing on the second night of a back to back vs Washington, the Nuggets starters looked gassed. Jokic played a whopping 39 minutes while attempting 30 shots on a bad elbow. Jamal Murray played 37 minutes, and that number would've been higher had he not missed four minutes late in the 4th quarter after rolling his ankle.
On the season, Nikola Jokic is averaging 36.5 minutes per game, which ranks 8th in in the league and is nearly two more minutes more than his previous career high of 34.6 minutes per game. Jamal Murray comes right behind Jokic at 36.4 minutes per game, which is 10th most in the NBA, and also a personal career high.
The Nuggets have four players ranked in the top 40 of minutes per game, with Michael Porter and Christian Braun coming in ranked 37th and 39th.
Repeating past mistakes
Michael Malone is deservedly going to go down as the best coach in franchise history. That being said, he's awfully close to leading the Nuggets into the exact same predicament they found themselves in last May. If he wants to avoid last year's fate, he cannot make the same mistake of prioritizing playoff seeding over health and load management.
While last year's Nuggets tied a franchise record by winning 57 games and had home court advantage in both their playoff series, they ended up being hampered by injuries, most notably to Jamal Murray, who played through a strained left calf and was a shell of himself in their two series against the Lakers and Timberwolves.
Against the Wolves, home court advantage ended up being about as useful as a bag of rocks, as the Nuggets lost three home games in the series, including a heartbreaking Game 7 at Ball Arena.
The two most successful Nuggets playoff runs of the Jokic Era came in 2020, in the bubble, and in 2023, where the Nuggets won their first and only NBA title. The common denominator? Both runs came with a healthy and rested roster.
In 2020, the Nuggets, like every other team, came into the bubble rested after a four month hiatus. They ended up completing two 3-1 comebacks and making it to the Western Conference Finals.
In 2023, the Nuggets clinched the number 1 seed before the regular season ended, and were able to rest some of their key players down the stretch of the regular season, which ended up being important during their title run.
Bottom Line
While you don’t want to overreact after a few bad regular season losses, it’s only fair to be concerned about the ceiling of this year’s team. The Nuggets have not only looked lifeless defensively, but the injuries are piling up by the day. Julian Strawther is still out. Aaron Gordon has missed 29 games. Christian Braun is dealing with left foot inflammation. Now, Jokic and Murray are playing through injuries, as already mentioned.
Michael Malone has to ask himself what matters more: health, or seeding. If he can't figure out the right answer, maybe he should go back and rewatch last year's playoffs.