Tuesday night is the final night of NBA Cup group play for the 2024-25 season and the Nuggets will play their final scheduled game against the Golden State Warriors in Denver. So far, the Nuggets have gone 1-2 in NBA Cup play; they fell to the Mavericks and Pelicans but managed to get a win over the Grizzlies.
The Warriors have already clinched the group, starting 3-0 in group play. They obviously aren’t going to punt on a regular season game that counts toward the standings in a loaded Western Conference. But theoretically, they don’t have quite as much motivation on Tuesday night, at least in terms of the NBA Cup.
Nuggets still clinging to slim wild-card chances
Since the group has already been clinched, that means there is just one wild card spot up for grabs in the West. The three group winners will advance, which leaves a fourth and final spot in the knockout round.
Even at 1-2, the Nuggets are not technically eliminated from the knockout round, but they need a lot of things to go right and they need a lot of help. For starters, the team needs to win - and they need to win big.
How can the Nuggets reach the NBA Cup quarterfinals?
The Nuggets can only get to a 2-2 record, so they need to make sure that no non-group winners reach a 3-1 record in group play. That means that Denver needs Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Portland to all lose on Tuesday night. But that’s only half the battle.
Even if all of those teams lose, that would create a massive logjam with at least 6 teams tied with a 2-2 record, vying for the final spot in the knockout round. At that point, the tiebreak would come down to point differential in group play games.
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, they are going to have to make up a lot of ground on that front. The Nuggets currently enter their final game on Tuesday with a +2 point differential. That’s better than other potential 2-2 teams like the Timberwolves, Blazers, Clippers, Lakers, and Grizzlies; those teams all currently have a negative point differential, so if the Nuggets win by a greater margin than those teams on Tuesday night, they’ll win those tiebreaks.
The bad news is that there are still other potential teams like the Spurs, Thunder, and Suns who all have point differentials close to +20. The Nuggets are going to have to make up quite a bit of ground with their victory margin to pass those teams.
Then, the toughest team to catch of all may be the Dallas Mavericks who currently hold a point differential of +41. The Nuggets need the Mavs to lose and need them to lose by a lot. The Nuggets will need to make up a 39-point differential tonight if they have any dreams of advancing.
To put it simply, the Nuggets need a borderline miracle on Tuesday night. They need to win their own game by a lot of points and they need several teams to get blown out. It’s not impossible, but the situation is certainly dire.