The Denver Nuggets won 54 games in 2025-26 while their starters missed a combined 136 games due to injury. When healthy, which obviously wasn't much, a whole 23 games' worth for the starting core of Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun, and Jamal Murray, the Nuggets were 18-5. Good for a 64-win pace. That's why the 2026-27 over/under win total projection of 49.5 seems a bit low. Are the offseason subtractions really detracting that much more than the additions?
I don't think so. And I think the Nuggets reach 50+ wins. For comparison's sake, the Nuggets were 8-4 when the lineup was Jokic, Murray, Johnson, Spencer Jones, and Peyton Watson. That's still a 55-win pace. Even in the 18 starts by Jalen Pickett, who the Nuggets declined the team option on and saw the Los Angeles Clippers pick up as a two-way player, they were still 11-7, a 50-win pace. Plug people in with Jokic, and the Nuggets just win.
You have to go back to 2021-22 to find a season the Nuggets failed to hit 50 or more wins, and they won 48 games that year.
The Nuggets are sneakily good as long as they are healthy
The Nuggets lost Tim Hardaway Jr. to the Miami Heat at the start of the offseason free agency period. They let go of Pickett and Jonas Valanciunas and haven't re-signed Bruce Brown. They've been replaced by a 29-year-old rookie defensive specialist in Alpha Diallo, a 27-year-old former number two overall pick in Marvin Bagley III, and the athletic 23-year-old rookie second-round pick Trevon Brazile.
Bagley's got as much offensive potential as Valanciunas, with much more athleticism and defensive potential. Diallo is a better defender than Brown (at least from the game film I've watched on Diallo). And Brazile can stretch the floor and defend the rim. Julian Strawther showed in his 14 starts last year that he can score and shoot well, averaging 14.8 points on 48.4% shooting from the floor and 38.5% from three. He'll be just fine in place of Hardaway.
The weakness will be Tyus Jones backing up Murray. If Murray stays healthy, and for that matter, the core starting unit, there's no reason to think Jokic isn't getting that bench over 50 wins. Jokic makes everyone better. Sure, the lack of experience on the end of the bench could potentially be rough, but as long as that starting five is together, it's as good as any starting five in the NBA. But they have to stay healthy, of course.
So from a historical and logical perspective, I think the Nuggets will clear 49.5 wins. They have the biggest X-factor in the whole league in Jokic. If he puts up a huge season, carrying more weight for the bench, the Nuggets could even exceed last season's 54 wins.
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