Objectively speaking, Russell Westbrook has had a great first season so far in Denver. This wasn’t exactly a match made in heaven, but it was a perfect marriage of convenience. Russ needed a team that could give him a chance to play, a chance to win, and a chance to prove that he could still make an impact.
The Nuggets needed depth, veteran leadership, ballhandling, playmaking, defense, and energy, while having almost no spending power. It just so happened that Westbrook - at least at one point in his career - checked all of those boxes and he signed a veteran minimum contract to join Nikola Jokic and the 2023 champs.
Westbrook has returned great value on that deal and then some. He’s vastly outperformed expectations, averaging 12.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game this season, playing over 27 minutes a night. Partially due to injuries, and partially due to his stellar play, he’s also started in 30 of his 58 appearances.
Maybe the most impressive thing about the Russ experience has been his mind-meld with Jokic. The two basketball savants and league MVPs quickly formed an incredible chemistry and they’ve had one of the best two-man games in the league. They were playing so well together, that Michael Malone actually chose to start Westbrook over Christian Braun before Westbrook injured his hamstring.
Michael Malone must keep Westbrook on short leash
But despite all the success, we have to remember what Westbrook is, and more importantly, what he isn’t. He’s no longer a guy who can consistently run a successful, playoff offense. He has proven it time and again in the last few years and the Nuggets need to accept that before it’s too late.
Malone seems to have realized it to an extent as he quickly reversed his lineup decision, reinstating Braun and riding him hard recently. The reality is that the Nuggets have an excellent starting lineup, and not much else.
When the playoffs start, the Nuggets need to lean heavily on their starting five of Jamal Murray, Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Jokic. Realistically, those guys are all going to need to play close to 40 minutes (if not more), and they’re going to have to play well.
That means Westbrook is going to be a bench scorer and he’s going to be on a short leash. Some nights will be like Monday, when Russ came in and played great against the Thunder, not forcing the issue and knocking down his open shots to the tune of 16, 5, and 7 on 6/10 shooting and 3/5 from three as Denver rocked the Thunder in OKC.
Nuggets can't let Westbrook decide playoff games
On the other hand, there will be nights where he is out of control and trigger-happy, and if the shot isn’t going, he’ll shoot the team right out of the game if Malone lets him. That was the case on Sunday when Russ scored just 4 points on 1/9 shooting and 1/5 from long range in a 23-point loss to the Thunder.
When Russ starts hurting the team, Malone can’t hesitate. he‘s going to need to yank Westbrook and go to other options before things slip away. Maybe that means some minutes for Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, or Zeke Nnaji. Or maybe it just means even more minutes for the starters.
The Nuggets have a high ceiling, but also a very low floor as they have almost zero margin for error. To beat elite teams, they need everything to go right and that means avoiding bad stretches with Westbrook completely derailing the offense. If Malone makes this realization and can ride the Russ wave to success, this just might work. If not, it may end in disaster.