The Denver Nuggets aren't part of the exclusive 40-before-20 club this season. If you're wondering what that is, it's a rule coined by Pat Riley, who believed that legitimate title contenders hit 40 wins before 20 losses. By that thinking, the Nuggets' odds of reaching the mountaintop in June took a hit they won't be able to rebound from, but there's more to it than that.
Nikola Jokić has played in 43 of Denver's 59 games this year, missing several weeks with a hyperextended left knee. Surprisingly enough, the Nuggets went 10-6 during that span, which is even more impressive when you consider the other key players the team was without.
In other words, they've been hit with so many injuries this year that the 40-before-20 rule shouldn't hold as much weight.
As Zach Harper of The Athletic highlighted in 'The Bounce' newsletter on Friday, the Bucks won in 2021 (subscription required) without winning 40 games before hitting 20 losses, but Giannis Antetokounmpo missed 11 games that season. Milwaukee had to take down a 40-before-20 team (Phoenix) in the NBA Finals that season, too.
Nuggets can still win the title without being in 40-20 club
There are only three teams this season that hit 40 wins, and still haven't picked up 20 losses: Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Detroit.
Boston's chances of doing so came down to the wire with a 38-19 record, but the Nuggets handed the Celtics their 20th loss of the season, putting their record at 38-20. Of course, they've been without star Jayson Tatum all year, who could return in time for the playoffs, so the 40-20 rule may not apply to them as much, either.
No team in the NBA keeps close track of its wins and losses each year in terms of 40-20 (except the Heat), as the focus is on taking things one game at a time. If you're good enough, like the three aforementioned teams, you'll get there.
If you're like the Nuggets, you'll hit some bumps along the way, but that doesn't mean they can't still reach their desired destination. The scenic route is more fun, anyway, and by 'scenic,' I mean injuries that made fans think about giving up their fandom altogether. Hey, there's nothing like overcoming adversity.
As Harper pointed out, since 1979, the beginning of the three-point line, only four teams have won a title without hitting 40-before-20. Four. Riley didn't just pull this rule out of thin air, as history backs up his line of thinking (for the most part).
Maybe the Thunder, Spurs, or Pistons will hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy in June, or perhaps the Nuggets will defy history (while making history) and become the fifth team to win it all without enjoying 40 wins before 20 losses. We like the latter scenario a lot better, so that's the one we're going to roll with.