To a certain extent, every team in the NBA has an identity and for better or worse, they’ve been exposed for what they are. For example, the Thunder are defined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring, the Celtics persona is their elite two-way wings, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and the Cavaliers are all about their two playmaking guards, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, and their twin towers of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
The Nuggets are no exception, and their identity is the brilliance of Nikola Jokic and his two-man game with Jamal Murray. It’s an excellent identity, one of the best in the league, even. But in the NBA playoffs, the margins become so important, and it’s all about what a team can do to enhance their identity.
For the Thunder, that means secondary offense from guys like Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Aaron Wiggins and a historically stifling defense, for the Celtics it means supplemental stars and insane three-point volume, and for the Cavs, it’s a deep bench and three-point accuracy.
The problem for the Nuggets is the uncertainty around their identity. Jokic is the best player in the world and a Finals MVP. Denver knows what they’re getting from the big man every night in the postseason and it's going to be damn good. Murray doesn’t quite have that level of gravitas and doesn’t have the same night-to-night consistency, but he’s earned the benefit of the doubt come playoff time as long as he’s healthy.
Nuggets shooting from role players a major question mark
Beyond that, things get a little dicey, especially when it comes to shooting. To be a great team, the Nuggets need to be getting consistent, supplemental performances around the two stars. We’ve seen that when defenses ramp it up against Denver, they pack the paint, throw bodies at Jokic, and dare the Nuggets to beat them with shooting.
The Nuggets’ secondary offensive players are not bad shooters. In fact, many are shooting a high percentage. But outside of Michael Porter Jr., none of them are volume shooters, nor are they impacting a defense or changing the spacing with gravity.
It’s a major issue and a total wild card on a nightly basis. Porter Jr. is the best of the bunch, but he has been prone to disappearing acts, especially in the playoffs, plus he has been in a huge slump since the All-Star break. Aaron Gordon is shooting 45% from three on the year, but he barely attempts 3 a game and those are shots the defense will live with.
The same could be said about Christian Braun and Peyton Watson. Both players have shot the ball well, but they are hesitant and reluctant shooters who don’t intimidate opposing defenses. Russell Westbrook is more than happy to let it fly, but that’s the last guy that Nuggets fans want to see shooting threes in the playoffs.
For the Nuggets to make a deep playoff run, they are going to have to get a nice run of consistent, confident shooting from several of these players. It’s certainly not impossible, but it’s hard to trust. Other teams have much more reliable secondary options that will be clearly on display in the playoffs.
It’s not a revelation, it’s something we’ve known all year long, but the Nuggets’ supporting cast around Jokic doesn’t stack up with elite teams around the league. It’s going to be difficult to overcome, and it may ultimately, be the team’s undoing, but they need these guys to step up and hit shots for Denver’s title hopes to have any life.