The NBA season hasn’t even begun, but if the past is any indication, we can already predict what the Denver Nuggets will do before the trade deadline. The roster is as deep as ever, but they are currently just $402,000 over the luxury tax with an open roster spot remaining. Get ready to see them sell.
While the inclination may be to think that a team contending for a championship should get aggressive and make a move, this ownership group has never shown a willingness to pay big luxury tax bills.
The $402K may not seem like much, but this roster is going to get very expensive next season and beyond as different extensions kick in, and others will be agreed to very shortly. There is almost no chance the Kroenkes will go deep into their pockets to pay the much-feared repeater tax, and this would be their fourth straight season above the tax line.
The Nuggets are likely going to sell at the deadline
That all leads to the unfortunate conclusion that the team will make a move ahead of the deadline to dump a contract and sneak under the luxury tax for this season. They have 9 players making under $8.2 million this season, and offloading any one of them would accomplish ownership’s financial goals.
The other reality of the situation is that the Nuggets likely have a player or two too many. Beyond the starting lineup, the Nuggets brought in three veterans who are all expecting to play in Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas. They also have four young, up-and-coming players in Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, and DaRon Holmes, who all need to play.
That makes 12 NBA rotation players, and David Adelman just can’t be going that deep into his bench every night. Most NBA rotations aren’t going deeper than 9-10 on a regular basis, which means there are going to be some tough decisions and some unhappy players in Denver.
There’s a chance that this situation works itself out for everyone organically. As the season goes on and players develop and settle into certain roles, it will become clear who is on the outside looking in, and which players may no longer feel like a part of the team’s future.
Some kind of salary dump trade may end up a win/win, and keep everyone happy while letting the cheap owners off the hook. It’s sad that we need this kind of spin, or that we even need to think that way, but given the franchise’s spending history, it’s impossible not to consider it.