The Denver Nuggets excitedly agreed to a contract extension with young wing Christian Braun over the offseason. Half a season later, the breakout campaign of Peyton Watson and an injury-riddled one for Braun begs the question: did the Nuggets commit to the wrong player?
The answer is almost certainly yes.
The question of how good Christian Braun actually is will start fights among Denver fans. Was his impact as result of elite synergy with Nikola Jokic, or is he a blossoming young player taking the next step? His third-season breakout consisted of efficient scoring and 15.4 points per game to go with very solid perimeter defense. That's the kind of player a team wants to lock up long-term.
Lock up they did, agreeing to a rookie extension prior to this season rather than let him hit restricted free agency this summer. Braun is making $4.9 million this season in the final year of his rookie contract, and then will make an average of $25 million on a five-year, $125 million extension that will pay him through the 2030-31 season.
This season has gone disastrously for Braun, and in turn, that means the Nuggets' decision to extend him at solid starter money is also looking rough. Braun's 3-point percentage has plummeted to 21.2 percent from deep, his numbers are down across the board (except for tunrovers, which are up) and the Nuggets have been much worse with him on the court.
To add to the reduced level of play, Braun has also been sidelined for most of the past two months with a severe left ankle injury. Perhaps his poor level of play was merely a small sample size (and includes three games of terrible play where he attempted to return from his injury) but add it all up and it seems obvious that Denver could have waited and signed Braun at a much lower number in restricted free agency this summer. They bought high.
What makes matters worse when evaluating the Braun situation -- but much better for the Nuggets as a whole, especially this season -- is that Peyton Watson has blossomed into a starter and secondary scorer for the team. The onetime defensive specialist has become a two-way rising star, propelling the Denver Nuggets forward in the absence of Jokic and revealing a diamond in the rough.
That is overall great for the Nuggets, and could be the difference in taking down the Oklahoma City Thunder and winning the championship this season. Yet it does open up a quandary leading into this offseason: can they afford to pay both Braun and Watson?
Peyton Watson is heading for a massive payday
In the last 30 days, Watson has blossomed into a two-way ascending star. He is averaging 19.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game -- and an impressive 2.2 assists as his playmaking emerges from the basement. He is shooting 41.3 percent from deep on largely self-created looks. Add that to his elite defensive chops and you have a player worth north of $30 million per season.
The issue with that is that the Nuggets are historically a fiscally conservative team, and they are already above the luxury tax line for next season before factoring in any amount of money for Watson. They could move off of Jonas Valanciunas and his $10 million, but they do need to field a full roster, so each roster slot will bump them further into the tax and toward the tax aprons.
It seems inexplicable that the Nuggets would let Watson walk after his breakout season. It also seems inexplicable that they will leap well above the second tax apron, both because that brings significant team-building restrictions and because this is a famously thrifty organization. Paying the tax for a contender is one thing; paying hundreds of millions on top of that?
There is plenty of season left; Braun could return fully healthy and take a leap. Watson could drop off. Yet now Denver is left hoping for a miracle, because they gave big money to a limited shooter with one breakout season, and now he has fallen off while the next limited shooter has his breakout season. It will be a difficult situation to sort through.
And it could end with someone core to the team being shipped out of town.