The Nuggets have done just about everything right this offseason, hitting one home run after another. But they need to tread cautiously with their next move, extending Christian Braun. With one year remaining on his rookie deal, Braun is eligible for an extension until October; otherwise, he’ll play out the season and become a restricted free agent next summer.
That would be a bad outcome for all parties involved, and there should be a reasonable amount of urgency to get a deal done now, but Denver has to be careful. The number that has been thrown around as a comp is a five-year, $150 million deal that Jalen Suggs agreed to last offseason.
Suggs is at least a solid harbinger as a defensive ace who is solid but not great on offense, playing predominantly off the ball. Unfortunately, that $30 million average annual value is more than the Nuggets should be comfortable paying.
Nuggets must keep Braun contract under $25 million
Denver has done some nice financial maneuvering this offseason while vastly improving the team, but things are about to get very tricky. As John Hollinger of The Athletic points out, the Nuggets are projected to be $27 million under the second apron next season, and that’s assuming they don’t pick up the option on Jonas Valanciunas.
Josh Kroenke has essentially all but indicated that the second apron is a hard cap and the Nuggets will be avoiding it at all costs. Plus, if they go over it next season, that will trigger the repeater tax, which you’d have to imagine is a non-starter for the ownership group.
That means that the Nuggets have, at most, $27 million to offer Braun and fill out the rest of the roster (Peyton Watson is also extension eligible). The Nuggets are “all in” to win now, as they should be, but that doesn’t mean they can be tearing down the roster a year or two from now.
Shorter contract may be the compromise
As Hollinger notes in the same article, perhaps there is a sweet spot where the Nuggets are willing to let Braun out of the deal sooner if he takes a number in the low $20s of millions. Hollinger suggested a four-year, $85 million contract with the final year being a player option.
That would keep the Nuggets safely under the second apron without shedding other players and also give Braun a solid raise with another chance to hit free agency at 28 for an even bigger payment.
Hopefully, Braun is willing to play ball here. If not, and he wants to play hardball, the Nuggets will almost certainly be forced to shed salary a year from now and break up what appears to be a championship-level roster.