However much money you think the Denver Nuggets will need to spend to keep Peyton Watson this summer, it will probably be more. A restricted free agent in a few months, Watson is already drawing interest from other teams (ahem, Lakers), and his exhilarating skill set will make him a hot commodity even with the "restricted" tag attached to him, especially with the Nuggets already set to pay the rest of their core guys a pretty penny in 2026-27.
I say "other teams," but I am talking almost exclusively about the Lakers — who will try to acquire Giannis, probably fail, and then set their sights other high-level free agents who would complement Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves well.
Unfortunately for Nuggets fans, Watson fits that description perfectly. A long, defensive-minded forward with a developing outside shot and the ability to plug multiple gaps on both sides is a dream target for the Lakers, who will be swimming in cap space when LeBron James likely signs elsewhere or retires.
Restricted free agency is not what it used to be
Until a few years ago, a player being a restricted free agent was almost non-news. It was assumed that guys would sign longterm deals with the teams they already played for, and if another team sent an offer sheet (which didn't happen often) it would pretty quickly be matched. Simple as that.
But last summer alone, we saw some restricted free agency nightmares. Quentin Grimes and Cam Thomas both signed qualifying offers instead of a longterm deals, Jonathan Kuminga signed a two-year deal with a team option in year two (and then got traded in the first season), and Josh Giddey only reached a longterm agreement with the Bulls because he basically dared them to let him walk and they wouldn't.
Plus, it's not like the Nuggets have tons of money to throw Watson's way. They can match any offer that another team lobs his way, but they will be well over the second apron if Watson gets anything close to the $25ish million per year he's projected to get (and I believe he will).
Being over the second apron is fine if a front office is confident that roster will compete for a title, and the Nuggets should certainly be in contention next year, barring any disasters. But paying Peyton Watson might require Calvin Booth and the front office biting the bullet to avoid losing the 23 year-old rising star.