It’s somewhat bittersweet as Peyton Watson finally gets a real chance to play a featured role for the Nuggets and prove his worth, it comes at a time when it seems like a near certainty that he won’t be back in Denver next season. Unfortunately, with the Nuggets’ financial crisis looming, Watson is playing his way into a bigger contract that the team won’t be able to afford.
This became the most likely outcome in the summer when the Nuggets gave out a five-year, $125 million rookie extension to Christian Braun, but didn’t get anything done with Watson. That was the first major indicator that the team couldn’t keep Watson beyond the end of his current deal.
He’ll hit restricted free agency at the end of the season, and technically, the Nuggets will have the rights to match any deal. But they’ve already tipped their hand. The roster is going to be right up against the second apron, just from paying the five starters and Zeke Nnaji.
There’s no way this ownership group wants to spend into the second apron; in fact, they’ve made it clear they’d rather avoid the tax altogether. Hopefully, that’s not a realistic option, but even if the plan is just to duck the second apron, they are going to have to cut costs next year when a number of extensions kick in, and Watson appears to be the odd man out.
Watson will either be traded or leave in free agency
Watson has always oozed with potential and looked like a young, talented player who could take a leap if he ever got the chance. Now, he’s getting that chance thanks to injuries to Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon, and he looks like a player who could be a foundational piece for a young team.
It’s great for the Nuggets’ depth this season, but it’s bad for their chances of keeping Watson long term. There will almost certainly be a team that offers him a deal at the midlevel exception, or higher, which would be almost impossible for the Nuggets to match.
Knowing that he’ll probably leave for nothing makes the rest of this season extremely complicated for Devner. On the one hand, he’s playing an important role, and they need him to win a title.
On the other hand, losing an asset like that for nothing at the end of the year would be a painful conclusion to his Nuggets career. Do they dare test the trade market and see if they can find a deal that returns fair value without sacrificing this year or in the future?
It’s at least worth finding out, and it may be an uncomfortable avenue to navigate, but it’s a fork in the road they’re going to have to face sooner or later.