As the Peyton Watson restricted free agency saga drags on, the fear that he will accept his one-year, $6.5 million qualifying offer is growing amongst Denver Nuggets fans. It'd be quite the risky move for the 23-year-old to make, and he has a recent example to refer to if he's seriously considering it.
Cam Thomas declined the Nets' two-year, $30 million offer last offseason as a restricted free agent and decided to accept his $6 million qualifying offer, which set him up to be an unrestricted free agent this summer. He bet on himself, and lost.
Brooklyn waived Thomas after it failed to find a trade for him at February's deadline, and Milwaukee signed him. He spent less than two months with the Bucks before they waived him in favor of signing Pete Nance to a standard NBA contract. He's remained unsigned for over four months.
Yes, Watson is a different player from Thomas (he plays defense!), but the point remains the same — accepting the qualifying offer could be a disaster.
Cam Thomas bet on himself and it didn't work out
Anything can happen over the course of a season. Perhaps Watson's biggest concern about accepting the qualifying offer would be the risk of another soft-tissue injury that could derail his season, leaving him with significantly less money on the table for next summer.
Watson had the best season of his career in 2025-26, but it was a small sample size. He didn't play at all after April 1 because of a nagging hamstring injury. He's right to still try to bank on the 54 games (a career-high 40 starts) he played and get as much money as possible, but Denver's finances are already a mess.
It really doesn't help that the Nuggets signed Christian Braun to a five-year, $125 million deal last offseason (that kicks in at the start of next season), as Watson should hope to get at least $25 million annually. If he's not willing to take anything less than that, and Denver doesn't want to go that far (and it probably won't), he could decide to hold off on getting the payday he believes he deserves next summer.
Watson would do so under the belief that it'd end up working out for him in the end, but that's what Thomas thought last year.
On top of the injury concerns, Watson could regress next season (like Braun), which would erase his chances of earning at least $25 million.
Restricted free agency is always complicated. It's no fun for anyone involved, particularly, in this case, Watson. The longer that things drag on, the more draining it gets, and it's already draining enough. He could reach a point where he's on board with accepting his qualifying offer, but there are a number of reasons he shouldn't do it. If he needs a reminder, he can look at Thomas.
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