The Denver Nuggets could get a bargain for Peyton Watson this season to break the stalemate in negotiations. But that bargain would be a massive bet on himself by Watson, and it would likely leave the Nuggets empty-handed next season unless they somehow salvage the burnt bridge that could be forming due to the stalemate in negotiations and not valuing Watson like he values himself.
The latest development in the Watson restricted free agency saga comes from NBA insider Marc Stein and The Stein Line (subscription required), and he says that Watson is considering taking the qualifying offer from the Nuggets, which stands at just $6.5 million for the 2026-27 season.
"League sources say Watson, like Detroit's Jalen Duren, has been weighing the unappealing prospect of playing out the 2026-27 season on a qualifying offer with the intent to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. Actually doing so, mind you, means leaving millions on the table," says Stein. "In Watson's case, specifically, that would mean playing next season for just $6.5 million."
Well, that would certainly be a huge bargain for the Nuggets, but what a big, big, big bet on himself this would be. Watson has been seeking a contract closer in value to Christian Braun's $25 million per year, or more. Per Stein, the Nuggets have offered Watson a four-year, $70 million extension, which would equate to $17.5 million per year. A substantial difference.
Watson is taking a massive bet that can get more next year if he does this
Considering Watson has only played 80 games once and has totals of 23, 54, and 68 in the other three years of his career, health is obviously a concern if he chose this bet. Watson, to his credit, is obviously a firm believer that his scorching-hot January of 2026 can be repeated consistently, which is the backbone of his large-contract demands.
While Nikola Jokic was sidelined during the month, Watson averaged 21.9 points on 49% shooting from the floor and 46.2% shooting from three-point range. He displayed excellent defense, averaging 1.0 steals and 1.5 blocks per game over 15 games. It wasn't a small sample, but without Jokic, Cameron Johnson, and Christian Braun out of the starting lineup, and Aaron Gordon limited to just 10 games on the month, someone else had to score and step up for the Nuggets.
Watson would likely be a starter or the sixth man at worst for the Nuggets, depending upon how they choose to construct the roster. He'll get plenty of minutes. But if he wants a larger contract than what the Nuggets are offering, he's going to have to be on the floor and very productive to get that same offer from the Nuggets or someone else next summer as an unrestricted free agent.
Taking the qualifying offer would be a boon for the Nuggets and their luxury tax situation. But it would be a massive risk for Watson. He could leave more than just the $11 million on the table next year if this plan goes south.
Add us as a preferred source on Google