Best NBA prop bets today for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves (Buy low on Jamal Murray’s points)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Denver Nuggets-Minnesota Timberwolves matchup on Monday night.

Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray.
Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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The best matchup of the night in the NBA takes place in Minnesota, as the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves both have the same record in their battle for the top seed in the West. 

Right now, Denver sits in the No. 3 spot, half a game back of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Minnesota, who won the first meeting between these teams, has the tiebreaker over the Nuggets at the moment. 

This is the second night of a back-to-back for Minnesota, and there could be some questions on the team’s injury report. Karl-Anthony Towns is already out, but Rudy Gobert has missed the team’s last two games. Plus, Anthony Edward dislocated his finger on an insane dunk last night (he did go on to finish the game). 

While I’m not sold on a side for this game, there are a few spots in the prop market that I think we can take advantage of on Tuesday. 

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Here’s a look at my three favorite plays for the Nuggets-Wolves matchup: 

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves best NBA prop bets

  • Jamal Murray OVER 20.5 points
  • Rudy Gobert UNDER 13.5 rebounds
  • Aaron Gordon UNDER 0.5 3-pointers made

Jamal Murray OVER 20.5 points

Over his last 11 games, Jamal Murray is averaging 22.8 points per game, clearing 20.5 points in seven of those matchups. 

The key for Murray in this prop will be volume, and he’s seen a ton of it as of late. The Nuggets star guard is averaging 17.5 shots per game over this 11-game stretch, shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 45.8 percent from 3. 

On the season, Murray is averaging 20.9 points per game, and I don’t mind backing him at this number – even against the NBA’s No. 1 defense. 

After shooting just 5-for-16 in the first meeting with the Wolves back in November, I expect a bounce-back showing from Murray tonight. 

Rudy Gobert UNDER 13.5 rebounds

There’s a chance Gobert sits out this game, but if he does play, I’m fading him as a rebounder tonight. 

Sure, the Defensive Player of the Year favorite is averaging 12.9 rebounds per game, but he’s been limited on the glass in his career against Nikola Jokic. 

In 22 games against Jokic, Gobert has cleared 13.5 rebounds just five times, averaging 10.8 boards per game against The Joker. 

This season, Gobert had 12 rebounds in his first meeting with the Nuggets. I think this number is a little high given the matchup, so I’ll go UNDER. 

Aaron Gordon UNDER 0.5 3-pointers made

Aaron Gordon has not shot the 3-ball well for Denver this season (28.4 percent from deep), and he failed to make a 3 – on just one attempt – in the team’s previous game against the Wolves this season. 

The Timberwolves rank No. 3 in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game, and they are fourth in opponent 3-point percentage. 

This is a tough matchup for any team to get off the 3-ball, and I don’t expect Gordon to take them at volume tonight, as he’s attempted just 1.8 shots per game from beyond the arc since the All-Star break. 

In that 13-game stretch, Gordon has made a 3-pointer in just four games. I’d fade him tonight.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.