Fair or unfair: Nuggets take substantial tumble in ESPN's NBA future rankings

Coming into the NBA season, there is plenty of focus on this year’s action, but more than ever, the future feels omnipresent. With the new CBA in place and talk of scary aprons everywhere, teams are making moves with extra caution and preparing for things down the road. 

We don’t seem to be seeing as many all-in type of moves; if anything teams may be willingly making themselves worse in the present, to avoid a disaster in the coming seasons (like the Timberwolves trading away Karl-Anthony Towns). Every roster transaction takes place with many layers, and everything is done from a macro sense, looking at the big picture.

Long-term team-building has gotten very difficult, but it’s as important as ever. With all that in mind, ESPN takes an annual look at the future health of each NBA team. Experts, Bobby Marks, Tim Bontemps, and Kevin Pelton rank every team based on their outlook for the next three seasons.

ESPN has Nuggets 6th in future rankings

The rankings use an aggregate score for each team based on their players, management, financial situation, draft capital, and media market. This time last year, the Nuggets were ranked second in this feature, trailing only the Boston Celtics - who just won the title. But this year, the Nuggets fell four spots, down to number six.

While the Celtics (#2) stayed ahead of Denver, the Nuggets were also leapfrogged by the Oklahoma City Thunder (#1), New York Knicks (#3), Philadelphia 76ers (#4), and Dallas Mavericks (#5). The experts docked the Nuggets for being a year older, losing KCP, more impending financial issues down the road, and their now heavy reliance on young and unproven talent.

The explanation is perfectly reasonable and fair. The Nuggets definitely have some concerns and their future is a bit murky due to the aforementioned reasons for sure. But still, some of the teams that have overtaken the Nuggets simply don’t deserve it. Simply put, the experts got it wrong and have yet again disrespected Denver.

ESPN got it wrong and here's why

For one, the Nuggets have the best player and there’s no reason to believe that will change in the next three seasons. They have Nikola Jokic and nobody else does. Furthermore, the cap situation is bad, but it’s not dire. There’s no reason they can’t pay to keep the core four of Jokci, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. together. 

The loss of Caldwell-Pope hurts, but he had a rough playoffs and may be on the downswing. They just need one or two of their young players to pop, and the team could actually be better this season. If Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, and DaRon Holmes can become solid rotation players, this team could be built to contend for three years and beyond.

Now here’s why the teams that passed the Nuggets should not have. I’ll grant you the Thunder and Celtics; those teams have a very strong case for being at the top of these rankings. But the Knicks, Sixers, and Mavericks? Absolutely not.

Let’s start with the Knicks; their cap situation is about to be worse than Denver’s and they have even less proven depth than the Nuggets. Their star power doesn’t even come close to the Nuggets’ and their supporting cast is overpaid. None of these players have proven their mettle in the playoffs either. I get the optimism in New York, but I’m not convinced they are championship contenders and I’m not sure how that changes in the next three seasons.

The Sixers are even more absurd to me. Embiid is not as good as Jokic and his health, fitness, and playoff resume are all extremely questionable. I’m not sure why adding Paul George would appease any of these concerns either. The Sixers haven’t had an impressive playoff win in ages and the core (other than Tyrese Maxey) is old and fragile. This ranking is just bizarre.

The Mavericks are high off their recent Finals appearance but even in the moment, it felt a little fluky. Now the team is relying on two past-their-prime stars in Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson to be their second and third options. This feels more like a recipe for disaster than setting up for a future juggernaut.

I get why the experts wanted to move the Nuggets down as it seems like the team has gotten slightly worse and these other teams have made flashy moves to improve. But none of them have actually done enough to warrant passing the Nuggets, and that goes for this season and the future.