What percentage of teams that win Game 1 of the Finals go on to win the series?

With the NBA Finals -FINALLY!!!- getting underway on Thursday night, it’s a good time to look at some interesting and noteworthy historical statistics about game one. The Celtics and Mavericks will tip things off Thursday night at 8:30 at TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics had the NBA’s best record this season 64-18 while the Mavericks finished 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32.

How often does the home team win game one of the NBA finals?

This will be the 78th Finals and in the previous 77 installments, the home team has won game one 58 times with the road team taking just 19; that’s good for a 75% win rate for the home team. Of those 58 teams, 45 finished the job and won the title, 78%. Of the 19 road teams that won game one, just nine have actually gone on to win the championship, or 47% of the time.

How often does the team that wins game one win the finals?

Overall, teams that win game one of the Finals - whether home or away - have ultimately won the series 54 times, good for a 70% clip. That’s not exactly a stone-cold lock, but it’s fair to say that’s a pretty significant data point and sample size. 

Nuggets won game one in Denver in the 2023 NBA Finals

The Nuggets added to these numbers last season as they won the championship 4-1 over the Heat after winning game one at home. That turned out to be a big win as they would lose game 2 in Denver. Had they not gotten themselves that cushion who knows how the series may have played out.

Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 1 Thursday 6/6 8:30 PM EST

Put simply, the Celtics have a great chance to win game one at home and put all the pressure on the Mavericks. If Dallas loses, they’ll immediately be tasked with overcoming massive historical odds. That’s not to say they aren’t capable, but it would be an uphill battle.

The Celtics will obviously want to gain that massive advantage, but based on the numbers they do have more margin for error. Of the 19 teams that have lost game one at home in the Finals, 10 of them have still won the title. The Celtics know this all too well as just two years ago in 2022 they stole game one of the Finals on the road in Golden State only to see the Warriors come back and win the series 4-2.

Every Finals is its own entity and past results have no bearing on what will happen in these Finals between the Mavericks and Celtics. But history will be made one way or another, and Thursday night’s result will play a major role.