With the Denver Nuggets' current salary for the 2026-27 season sitting at approximately $3.15 million over the NBA's dreaded second apron luxury tax threshold, they'll have to trade someone to get back under the mark that all other teams are avoiding. But who gets traded? Well, that depends on how badly the Nuggets want to move off one player and how much salary the Nuggets want to shed.
Last season, the Nuggets traded away Michael Porter Jr. to start the process of ducking the luxury tax line, which they completed with a trade of Hunter Tyson at the trade deadline. If they decide to duck the luxury tax line again this season to reset their "repeater clock" status, which is dodging the luxury tax in two out of four rolling seasons to lower the tax penalty rate, it could get ugly in the Mile High City.
I'll start with the most likely scenario and end with the least likely.
Most likely to be traded: Julian Strawther
Julian Strawther is the most likely Nugget on the chopping block this season. Strawther was the 29th pick of the 2023 NBA Draft, and he's still got a fantastic offensive upside. Plus, at the moment, he's got an expiring contract because the Nuggets have yet to extend his rookie deal. Strawther will make $4.8 million, leaving the Nuggets about $1.7 million of wiggle room.
The Nuggets could then convert rookie second-round pick Bryce Hopkins, who is on a two-way contract, to a standard contract to fill the roster spot and remain under the second-apron mark of $221.6 million. The Nuggets could also wait to trade Strawther until the trade deadline and sign a veteran to a prorated deal to finish out the season as long as the deal leaves them under the second-apron threshold.
Next in line: Zeke Nnaji
Moving off of Zeke Nnaji's player-friendly contract will be difficult for the Nuggets. They'll definitely have to attach draft capital to do it. Nnaji is owed $7.4 million for 2026-27 and 2027-28, with a player option that he'll certainly exercise. But if they get a deal done, they'll have about $4.25 million left over to fill Nnaji's roster spot, giving them plenty of space to sign a veteran free agent to replace him.
If the Nuggets decide to duck the luxury tax: Cameron Johnson
Entering the offseason, it was widely assumed that Cameron Johnson would be the Nugget who was traded during the offseason to stay within striking distance of the second apron threshold. Instead, it was Peyton Watson. But if the Nuggets want to dodge the luxury tax for a second season in a row to reset their repeater-paying status, Johnson fits best. And he's got the expiring contract, which attracts more teams.
The aprons and luxury tax are calculated slightly differently, with incentives being used to calculate the aprons. But for luxury tax purposes, the Nuggets sit at $219.2 million, about $18.8 million over the $200.4 million luxury tax line. Johnson's on the books for $23 million this season, so trading him and taking back no salary would reset the Nuggets' repeater clock while also leaving just enough space to sign a veteran to a minimum contract or elevate Hopkins from his two-way contract.
If the Nuggets want to blow it all up: Aaron Gordon
Nuggets fans certainly hope it doesn't come down to this, but if the Nuggets run into problems and are looking pretty bad going into the trade deadline, they could trade Aaron Gordon and perhaps keep their draft capital. Gordon is entering the first year of his new contract and is set to make $31.9 million, but he's still valued as a plus by most teams despite the concerns around his past injuries.
In fact, Bleacher Report just put Gordon as the 9th most likely player to be traded this season. That's not comforting for Nuggets fans who have grown fond of the de facto team leader. But trading Gordon would give the Nuggets a bunch of cap space heading into the 2027-28 season, along with a reset tax clock. I'm hoping that instead, the Nuggets are battling for a top seed in the Western Conference, and this notion of trading Mr. Nugget becomes nothing but pure speculation.
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