Russell Westbrook opts out: What it means for the Nuggets

Russell Westbrook will decline his player option for next season and become an unrestricted free agent on June 30, according to Marc Stein of The Stein Line. Just like that, the Nuggets’ best bargain signing in recent memory became another hole on the roster that needs filling this offseason.

Westbrook came to Denver on a veteran minimum contract, a reclamation project that seemed destined for either spectacular failure or modest success. Instead, he earned validation that he still belongs in this league and proof that the Nuggets found immense value in the former MVP.

The Case for Russ’ Raise

Let’s start with the numbers that matter. Russ appeared in 75 games last season, showing durability that’s become increasingly rare in the modern NBA. He started 36 of those contests, averaging 13.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 6.1 assists while shooting a respectable 44.9% from the field.

But statistics only tell part of Westbrook’s story in the Mile High City. Remember in January when Russ and Nikola Jokic became the first pair of teammates to record a triple-double in the same game twice in a single season? That brief stretch of the regular season offered a promising glimpse into what happens when Westbrook’s athleticism and passing meet Jokic’s control in an odd-couple two-man game.

Of course, there was the taketh alongside the giveth. That missed layup and subsequent foul in overtime against Minnesota on April 1, ruining the Jokic 60-point triple-double masterclass? From the upper deck, that sequence stung more than any other throughout the season.

Unfortunately for Denver, Westbrook way outplayed his veteran minimum contract. Players earning $3.3 million aren’t typically supposed to be your sixth man. They’re not supposed to (relatively) seamlessly slide between starting and bench roles. And they’re certainly not supposed to outshine your point guard on a maximum contract for significant stretches.

But as Russ might say, “Why not?”

I think Russ showed that he could offer more than solid minutes for teams in need of an aggressive ballhandler, and that should undoubtedly earn him a raise — in Denver or elsewhere.

How the Nuggets Bring Westbrook Back

The mathematics of re-signing Westbrook presents the Nuggets with three distinct pathways, each carrying its own implications for the franchise’s roster building in the near term.

Path One: The Minimum Gamble

Denver could attempt to re-sign Westbrook for another veteran minimum deal, likely a $3.6 million deal. To me, this is the organization’s preferred scenario: Maintaining a valuable asset on an affordable deal while keeping maximum flexibility for other roster moves. The question becomes whether Westbrook, having proven his worth next to #15, accepts another discount deal to stay in the Mile High City.

Path Two: The Non-Bird Compromise

Using their non-Bird rights, the Nuggets could offer Westbrook the 20% raise on his salary that Bruce Brown turned down in the summer of 2023, but that’s still less than $4.5 million. The 20% raise option acknowledges his valuable contributions in 2024-25 while maintaining a modicum of fiscal restraint. Perhaps, this approach finds a middle ground that satisfies both parties without further hamstringing the already limited roster flexibility.

Path Three: The Taxpayer MLE Disaster

Should Denver venture into taxpayer mid-level exception territory (potentially up to $5.7 million) to re-up with Westbrook, they’d make a catastrophic error, in my opinion. Using the TPMLE on Westbrook would eliminate their primary tool for adding complementary talent around their core. And kiss Bruce Brown goodbye. This move would undoubtedly restrict championship construction.

Yet the team can’t make these pivotal decisions without hiring a lead decision-maker ready to collaborate with the Kroenkes and new coach David Adelman. The Nuggets are attempting to navigate arguably the most important offseason in franchise history while still lacking the front office infrastructure necessary for this critical wheeling-and-dealing part of the NBA calendar.

What’s Next?

Should Westbrook walk, Denver’s veteran minimum alternatives at guard look significantly less appealing. The market might offer retreads like Dennis Schroder, who’s bounced between teams while never quite recapturing his early-career magic. There are also potential options like Cameron Payne, Vasilije Micic, Dalano Banton, and former Nugget Monte Morris.

But none of these options provides Westbrook’s unique combination of playmaking, veteran leadership, and proven chemistry with Jokic. Losing Westbrook without a clear succession plan could force Denver to rely on lesser talent or pray that internal development from Jalen Pickett fills an obvious void.

Hopefully, Bruce Brown comes back through the Ball Arena doors for the TPMLE this summer.

The former MVP earned a raise by embracing a role that maximized team success over individual accolades. He actually changed this year. Now the Nuggets must prove they possess the organizational wisdom to reward that sacrifice … but do so appropriately.

The clock is ticking toward July’s free agency kickoff. Denver's championship aspirations might well depend on how they choose to honor the bargain that became an incredibly positive overall investment last year.