The Denver Nuggets' offseason was going to be a difficult one. They came into the offseason pressed right up to the NBA's second apron tax-penalty threshold. limiting the free agent moves they could make. Now, after the Oklahoma City Thunder extended an offer sheet to restricted free agent Spencer Jones, the Nuggets find themselves facing a difficult situation. They can either re-sign Jones and remain more competitive, or they can let him walk to the Thunder for nothing, diminishing the roster even further, but they avoid big fines.
The impact of the repeater luxury tax
— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) July 25, 2026
Denver finances
Current tax penalty: $36.4M
With Spencer Jones: $68.6M
It feels like the Nuggets have been taking a step back year after year now. And it feels like the Nuggets, who are notoriously cheap, are going to take that same route again with Jones.
The offer sheet was for two years and $12 million, but that $6 million this season would put the Nuggets about $2 million over the second apron. Per ESPN's Bobby Marks, that $6 million contract comes with a $32.2 million tax, bringing the expected tax total for the Nuggets to $68.6 million for the 2026-27 season, WITHOUT bringing back Peyton Watson.
For reference, the Nuggets have paid a little under $58 million in luxury taxes over the Nikola Jokic era. In total.
The Nuggets need to decide if a better roster is worth $38 million
The offer sheet puts Jones at a $38.2 million cost for the 2026-27 season. The Nuggets have to decide if a better roster with Jones vs a replacement is worth the extra fines for them. It's easy for me to say, but I think it is.
Jones was great depth and a critical member of the rotation last season. He made 37 starts during the regular season, and despite just scoring 5.5 points per game, he was excellent. He played his role. Jones was in for physicality and defense, and he did a fine job. He absolutely deserves the raise and contract he has procured for himself.
Letting Jones go only to replace him with someone on the minimum salary isn't going to make the roster better. The Thunder and GM Sam Presti obviously see the talent. But the massive fines attached make this a difficult choice for the Nuggets.
It's only going to get tougher from here
Jones is the first domino to test the Nuggets' spending this offseason. Watson will soon follow. And the tax bill for his contract would really stretch the Nuggets. A lot. Bobby Marks shows that if the Nuggets match Jones and re-sign Watson for $23 million, they would face a luxury tax of $231 million. Ouch. That's probably not happening.
So what are the Nuggets to do? They've got a choice. Pay massive fines, or be more competitive. They can certainly afford the fines, but will they pay them? I hope so. It's easy for me to say. I want the Nuggets to be as competitive as possible.
If the Nuggets don't match Jones? The writing is on the wall that only a major trade will improve the roster and cap situation. And it could be a long year in Denver.
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