Entering April, even after a miserable March where the team went 8-7, the Denver Nuggets were in great position to finish as a top 2-3 seed in the west. Sadly, April has taken a turn for the worst with the Nuggets dropping all four games this month, resulting in their longest losing streak of the season. At this point, it may be time to reevaluate their end-of-season strategy.
Denver has clearly looked like an incomplete, flawed, and inconsistent team this last week but this is in part due to Jamal Murray being injured for every game. Additionally, Michael Porter Jr. missed two games and every Nuggets starter rested (or was injured) for the game against the San Antonio Spurs following their brutal double-overtime loss against the Timberwolves.
Denver has since dropped to the 4th seed in the west and is tied in losses with four other teams in the Clippers, Warriors, Wolves, and Grizzlies. It is entirely feasible at this point that Denver drops to a 7-8 seed and will be in the play-in… Is that actually a sneaky good option for this team though?
There are three key reasons why the Nuggets tanking to the 7-8 seed would make a ton of sense, despite being an incredibly risky maneuver.
Health and matchups are all that should matter to the Nuggets now
Looking at the Western Conference winner odds, NBA fans might notice something strange. The Houston Rockets are essentially locked into the 2nd seed in the west, but unlike most top seeds entering the playoffs, they have horrible odds to win the west at +2500. There are 6 other teams in the west, including the Nuggets, that have better odds to win the conference finals.
This is because the Rockets are incredibly young and their roster consists of many players who are not battle-tested, unlike players on the Lakers, Nuggets, Wolves, and Warriors, among others. They are rightfully viewed as a much less scary matchup than the Oklahoma City Thunder and they don’t possess the same star power as the Lakers or the Warriors.
Who plays the Rockets in the first round? Well, that would be the 7th seed in the West. The other perk of the 7th seed is that whichever team wins that first play-in game would be on the opposite side of the bracket as the Thunder. It is low-key one of the best pathway positions in the west and the Nuggets could and should jump on it, even if it means needing to win a play-in game.
Lastly, if Denver is comfortable slipping to the 7-8 seed, they could rest Jokic and other players prior to the playoffs starting. Jokic has played 43.0 minutes per game this month and the other key players have all played huge minutes as well. History tells us that Jokic, Murray, MPJ, and Gordon are a deadly core four in the playoffs when healthy, but they haven’t all been healthy together in quite a while.
If the Nuggets can get healthy and get it together in a must-win game in the play-in to secure the 7 seed, their pathway looks incredibly workable to make the Western Conference Finals. If they remain a 4-5 seed by playing all the starters tons of minutes, they may not only run out of steam in the first round but may actually get paired with a tougher matchup on paper.
Should the Nuggets try to manipulate the seeding in the west or is that a death wish? Only time will tell.