The Nuggets have a few conflicting interests at play, as the team is right in the heart of a championship contention window, but they also appear deadset on ducking the luxury tax this season and avoiding the second apron going forward.
That means that while doing everything they can to win titles within those parameters, they are still setting some parameters. The player who appears set to be most impacted by this looming financial crunch is breakout star Peyton Watson.
P-Wat was inconsistent in his first three seasons in the league, which led the Nuggets not to negotiate an extension in the fall, but instead to let him play out this final year of his deal before hitting restricted free agency in the summer. That decision has blown up in their faces with Watson now looking like a star who will command far more money in the offseason than he would’ve a few months ago.
So now, the Nuggets are at a bit of a crossroads. They have so much money tied up in their starting lineup of Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Johnson, and Braun that they really don’t have the ability to add another big contract. So, they can make a trade, they can let Watson walk for nothing as a free agent, or they can match the deal, keep everyone, and go way into the second apron - which we know isn’t going to happen.
Watson’s value as a trade asset would be massive
Under other circumstances, the logical solution to this problem would be selling high on Watson at the deadline, getting back a haul for a player you were never going to be able to afford, and who could leave for nothing in a few months anyway.
Denver could surely get multiple first-round picks back and solve their financial issue in one fell swoop. Everything could seemingly be fixed with one simple move. The only problem with that plan is that getting rid of Watson would make the team significantly worse. Even if the return would be good value, taking P-Wat out of the lineup is going to weaken their chances of winning a title. Which should mean it’s an option they won’t consider.
Ultimately, this “problem” is a good one to have, and it really only exists because Watson has played so well. If he keeps this up, they can figure out a way to make it work, but that can be a problem for the offseason. Getting ahead of it now may be the savvy move if this team wasn’t in contention, but the top goal still needs to be winning the 2026 championship, which is an achievable goal as currently constructed.
Getting rid of Watson would hinder that goal and would also be a very risky long-term decision. He has shown a lot this season, and at his age, he’s someone the Nuggets should make sure to keep around. That might mean some uncomfortable conversations, and perhaps trading a core player like Braun or Johnson. But again, let that be a decision for another day, and for now, focus on raising another banner in Ball Arena.