An unexpected “stopper”: Can Nuggets overcome OKC defense on Nikola Jokic?

Entering this series, I know I personally was much more worried about how Nikola Jokic would contend with the Oklahoma City Thunder’s twin towers frontcourt of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. But the Thunder’s bench big, Jaylin Williams, has apparently emerged as the unforeseen “Jokic stopper.”

With the series deadlocked at two, who saw Jokic vs. JWill as potentially the defining matchup of the series?

Nikola Jokic vs. Jaylin Williams By the Numbers

Nuggets Nation, you might want to avert your eyes.

When matched up against Williams in this series, our Serbian superstar has shot a dreadful 5-for-18 from the field while tallying just two assists against four turnovers. Woof! That’s a shooting percentage of 27.8% and a one-to-two assist-to-turnover ratio — downright horrific efficiency for a player who’s made a career of offensive brilliance.

Why Williams Excels on D

What makes Williams so effective against the Nuggets’ three-time MVP? On paper, the matchup shouldn’t work for OKC. Williams stands just 6’8” compared to Jokic’s nearly seven-foot frame, and he doesn't possess the extraordinary wingspan of a defender like Holmgren.

But Williams brings two critical elements to this matchup:

1. Surprising strength: Williams has a solid base, great sturdiness, and a low center of gravity that prevents Jokic from simply backing him down and creating his usual advantageous position in the deep post.
2. Lateral quickness: Unlike many traditional centers, Williams can recover quickly when the Nuggets run pick-and-roll actions, preventing Jokic from finding comfortable space in his preferred elbow and mid-range spots.

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault has recognized this surprising matchup advantage, steadily increasing Williams’ minutes in Games 2 through 4. The adjustment to play JWill more clearly disrupted Denver’s offensive flow, particularly in the minutes when Jokic shared the court with the reserves, and the Nuggets needed him to carry an even greater offensive load.

Of course, JWill isn't shutting Jok down alone — OKC is building a wall on Jokic, who sees two-plus bodies on most moves. But the numbers do indeed stand out.

To his credit, Jaylin Williams isn't exactly beating his chest about becoming a defensive specialist against the best player on the planet. At this morning’s shootaround, Williams offered a refreshingly honest assessment of his success:

"My opinion on basketball is when you’re playing a great player, a lot of it is just guys missing shots. We’re getting lucky with a couple shots … it involves a little bit of luck. When I go into the game, I know I’m not gonna play anywhere the amount of minutes Jokic plays, so when I’m in the game, I try to make it as hard as I can."

Jaylin Williams

Finally, Thunder and Nuggets fans can agree on something: Williams is right, but Jokic is missing shots he typically consistently makes. The numbers suggest an otherworldly defensive performance or a slumping superstar, but the truth likely falls somewhere in between.

Is Jokic Hurt?

We can’t discuss Jokic’s shooting struggles without addressing that something clearly isn’t right with the big man’s shooting arm. Remember him hitting the town still adorned in the double-shooting sleeves after Game 1?

Throughout the postseason, Jokic has sported not one but two shooting sleeves on his right arm — an unusual sight for a player who historically prefers to go accessory-free. The reality of an elbow injury becomes increasingly apparent with each uncharacteristic miss, though Jokic hasn’t made excuses.

Touch shots rimming out, hesitation on open looks and strange turnovers aren’t hallmarks of the Joker we’ve watched dominate the league on offense for years.

As the series shifts back to Oklahoma City for Game 5, can the Nuggets get their MVP back on track? The team is playing well enough around him, but Jokic has increasingly found himself battling both Williams and the officials, clearly frustrated by the physical defense he’s facing without corresponding whistles. These wrestling matches in the paint have disrupted his rhythm and the offense that makes our Nuggets so dangerous.

The Series is at Stake

For Denver to advance to the Western Conference Finals, Jokic must solve the Jaylin Williams puzzle.

If Jokic continues shooting around 25% against JWill, Denver’s championship hopes will fade faster than lightning strikes. But if the MVP finds his rhythm and reverts to Game 1’s god mode, this “Jokic stopper” narrative will become this season’s “Rui adjustment” (subscription required) in what could still be a championship run.

The chess match continues during a pivotal Game 5 Tuesday night in Oklahoma City, with Denver’s season — and Jokic’s legacy — potentially hanging in the balance. Solve Williams, and the path back to the Western Conference Finals gets much clearer. Fail to adjust, and we might be looking at two consecutive second-round exits.

Your move, Joker.