Much of the stress in Nuggets Nation this summer comes down to the future of Peyton Watson and how his restricted free agency will play out. We’ve heard about interest from teams like the Lakers, Bulls, Nets, and others, and there’s some concern that a bidding war could break out and someone could make Watson an offer that Denver can’t stomach to match.
But on the latest episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast, Bill pushed back on the idea that P-Wat will get a big payday this offseason, and doubled down on his recent take that the Nuggets just need to stop being cheap. He claimed to understand the second-apron fears, but insisted they can simply decline Jonas Valanciunas’ team option, flip Cam Johnson for a similar but cheaper player (he suggested Sam Hauser from the Celtics), and re-sign Watson to a deal around $20 million a year.
He went on to say he just doesn’t know where a big offer for Watson is coming from, claiming that P-Wat basically has only looked good for one five-week stretch and that these middling contracts in the $17-$22 million range are what every team is scared of.
Christian Braun and his deal were even mentioned as Bill used that as a prime example of a deal that the rest of the league is scared to make. He doesn’t seem to think Watson’s value is all that high around the league, and thinks that if Denver plays it smartly, they can keep him on a team-friendly deal and keep most of the roster intact while doing so.
There's a major flaw in Simmons' Watson theory
This sounds great in theory, but will likely be a lot more difficult in practice. Some of his logic on Watson may be accurate, but the reality of the situation is that it only takes one team to value him, and that’s a very dangerous game to play for the Nuggets.
Teams like the Nets and Bulls have no clear future and money to burn. They have nothing to lose from giving Watson $25+ million a year and giving him a chance to be a primary option. If he develops into a star, that would be a huge win, and if he doesn’t, they’ll be off the deal by the time they are ready to compete anyway.
If the Nuggets are going to clear money to re-sign him, they have to be very sure they will keep him. Trading a valuable player like Cam, then being forced to overpay Watson, or possibly lose him for nothing, would be a total doomsday scenario, and one that would be completely disastrous for a team trying to re-tool for the rest of Nikola Jokic’s prime.
Simmons is a great podcast GM, but this is the kind of risky thinking that could get an NBA decision-maker fired in real life. Hopefully, he’s right, but I’m not sure the Nuggets can afford to chance it.
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