Why MPJ cannot go MIA if Denver wants to win the Clippers series

Can the Nuggets’ 6’10” sharpshooter answer the challenge after getting benched in Game 1 and help the Nuggets advance to the Western Conference Semifinals? 
Denver Nuggets v Golden State Warriors
Denver Nuggets v Golden State Warriors | Eakin Howard/GettyImages

Michael Porter Jr.’s glaring absence from Denver’s crunch-time lineup on Saturday stood out as a $179 million elephant (not) on the court following the Nuggets’ Game 1 victory over the Clippers on Saturday afternoon.

Yes, Russell Westbrook’s clutch jumper with 24ish seconds left was massive. Yes, the Nuggets managed to eke out a win despite MPJ’s virtual no-show. But this series remains far from over, and Denver’s ability to advance might very well hinge on Porter Jr. waking up.

The Ghost of MPJ Present

Remember when Porter Jr. was dropping 18-plus points per game during the regular season? That guy apparently didn’t wake up for the afternoon tilt on Saturday. In Game 1, MPJ managed a paltry three points on 1-for-4 shooting in 26 minutes before warming the bench and cheering along for most of the third quarter and all of the fourth quarter and overtime.

The stats across his last eight playoff games tell an equally depressing story:

  • 9.8 points per game
  • 5.5 rebounds per game
  • 1.0 block per game
  • Just two 20-plus-point performances
  • A chilly 33.3% from three-point range and 3.65% from the floor

The stats look even worse across his last five postseason outings (5.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 28.2% field-goal shooting, and 21.7% from deep). Is this the same sharpshooter who looked like a future All-Star, scoring 30-plus in three straight games in February? The same guy with a $179 million contract? Right now, he’s playing like he’s worth a $1.79 million veteran’s minimum (I don’t know if that number is even possible, but you get the point).

Denver’s Spacing Question

Playing without Porter Jr. creates a spacing concern for Denver’s offense. As The Ringer’s Michael Pina astutely points out, it’s nearly impossible “to consistently score when five defenders guard only four opponents—and the fifth one can’t take advantage.”

When Westbrook is on the floor instead of MPJ, the Clippers’ defense can collapse on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray without fear of getting burned from the perimeter. Sure, Nuggets not named Nikola or Jamal made huge shots on Saturday afternoon, but that doesn’t solve the fundamental spacing issue that MPJ-less lineups create during the game’s remaining minutes.

Meanwhile, Porter Jr.'s presence alone — even on an off night — can force the Clippers to make a difficult defensive choice: Who guards him?

If it’s Kawhi Leonard, that pulls their best defender away from disrupting Denver’s lethal Jokic-Murray two-man game. If it’s James Harden or Norman Powell, Porter Jr. theoretically has the size and shooting ability to make them pay. But this only works if MPJ actually, you know, shows up.

Jokic’s Challenge and Adelman’s Conundrum

Jokic, a seemingly thoughtful interview subject, dropped this bombshell of a quote after Game 1, per DNVR’s Brendan Vogt:

"If you're not going to be engaged right now, then you're not supposed to be playing this sport."
Nikola Jokic

When the three-time and reigning league MVP puts it that bluntly, it might be time to look in the mirror. Jokic clearly sees what we all see: a disengaged Porter Jr. who’s unfocused during the most important games of the season.

Even new head coach David Adelman admitted the complicated nature of the Porter Jr. situation in this series:

Translation: “I know we need MPJ’s shooting, but his defense is killing us.” So, how does Porter Jr. earn his way back onto the court for crunch time in Game 2 tonight?

How MPJ Can Take Advantage

For me, it starts with purpose. Move on both ends. No more listless wandering or standing around. Cut hard, set screens, create motion. Use your length and be physical right back. Box out consistently and at least make your matchup work for their buckets. Hunt shot attempts when not strapped up by Kawhi. Be aggressive looking for scoring opportunities against Harden or Powell — only four shot attempts isn’t going to cut it as the series progresses.

To me, the MPJ formula boils down to being engaged enough that his offensive spacing value outweighs his defensive liabilities. The Nuggets need the best version of their core pieces to make another championship run, and that includes MPJ.

The 2023 championship team featured a confident, aggressive Porter Jr., who made defenses pay for overhelping on Jokic and Murray. If that guy doesn't show up tonight and for the rest of this series, the Nuggets’ season might end much earlier than expected, regardless of how many clutch shots Russ manages to hit.

Now is the time for Mike to show his center that he is indeed “supposed to be playing this sport.”

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