Breaking Down Jusuf Nurkic Ahead of 2015-16 Season

The Denver Nuggets only won 30 games during the 2014-15 season, but then 20-year-old rookie center Jusuf Nurkic was one of the bright spots for them.

The Nuggets have been on a consistent search for a center ever since Marcus Camby left. They have gone through players such as Nene (more a power forward than center), JaVale McGee (just the name alone gives me chills up my spine) and Timofey Mozgov (good, but traded).

But now, Denver may have found their next center of the future in the 6’11” youngster from Bosnia.

After the Nuggets traded away starting center Timofey Mozgov to the Cleveland Cavaliers for two first-round picks, they thrusted the young Nurkic into the starting lineup. Once in the starting lineup, he was productive.

But even before he started, in the 10 games prior to the Mozgov trade, Nurkic was averaging 9.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. He also shot 50 percent during that period of time.

Nurkic finished his rookie season with 6.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game. When the young center started for the Nuggets, he showed flashes of greatness in some areas while displaying some holes in his game.

Here is Nurkic’s assessment on how his first year in the association went, according to the Denver Post’s Christopher Dempsey:

“It was a really tough season. I hope we (the Nuggets) learn something from this season. I am still a young guy, so I will work hard, and I can’t wait until the season starts, as I know what to expect from the NBA now.”

From my perspective, here are two things he did well last season and one other area that he needs to improve on. 

Strengths:

Defensive Presence:

Nurkic’s sample size is pretty small, as he only averaged 16.5 minutes per game, but what he did in the time he got was impressive, especially defensively.

When Nurkic was on the court for the Nuggets in 2014-15, they were 10 points better per 100 possessions. Denver’s defensive rating also went from 30th in the league to a mark that would’ve been sixth in the league.

Also, his opponents shot 48.7 percent at the rim against him, which is comparable to stars like Anthony Davis and Marc Gasol. To cap things off, 67 percent of Nurkic’s rebounds last season were defensive rebounds.

Those are some pretty impressive defensive numbers, considering he is only just now getting acclimated to the fast-paced NBA.

Shot Selection*:

There is an asterisk by this strength because Nurkic can definitely improve on this. However, he did show flashes of greatness with some of shot selections last season. When Nurkic shot near the rim last year, he shot 61.5 percent. Now when he was 4-16 feet away from the rim he shot 39.2 percent and when he shot 16-23 feet away from the rim he shot 48.3 percent.

Those numbers can definitely be improved upon, but having the ability to confidently take jump shots and make them, give the Nuggets a glimpse of what to expect from Nurkic, once he progresses.  

Weaknesses:

Fouls:

There is a reason people often put “per 36 minutes” next to Nurkic’s statistics.

Although he was impressive on defense last season, he had trouble staying on the floor. Nurkic racked up nearly seven fouls per 36 minutes he played last year. That is not a stat you want to be associated with. He even fouled out in a game in November in less than 13 minutes. Nurkic will need to clean up his fouling problem if he wants to help the Nuggets improve on their 2014-15 season.

What to Expect in 2015-16

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Last May, Nurkic had surgery on a partially torn left patella tendon. He is still trying to get back to full strength, as he will miss the start of the Nuggets training camp. Once Nurkic gets fully healthy, I for sure expect him to play a bigger role in Denver’s system this season. I expect him to play an upward to 30 minutes per game while averaging 17 points, six rebounds, two blocks and 3.5 fouls per game next season.

If Nurkic is able to produce around that stat line, expect the Nuggets to win a few more games than they did last season.

Note: All statistics used are from Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com/stats unless otherwise indicated.