“He’s going to be rookie of the year.”
Per the Denver Post‘s Christopher Dempsey, this is the expectation Denver Nuggets shooting guard Will Barton has for point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, his rookie teammate.
That may be a lot to expect from a 19-year-old who didn’t get selected until the seventh pick in June’s draft, but Mudiay has the talent and opportunity to bring home the hardware.
Of course, the Congolese floor general’s season can be successful even if it doesn’t end in a Rookie of the Year award. He’s in a talented draft class, and many of his fellow rookies will also get big minutes.
Let’s look at what a good season might look like for Mudiay.
Talent
There’s a reason John Wall is the NBA comparison Mudiay almost always gets. Both players have great size for the point guard position (6’4″ for Wall, 6’5″ for Mudiay), above-the-rim athleticism to go with blinding speed and the ability to create for themselves and others.
In the point guard’s 12 healthy games with the Guangdong Southern Tigers last season, he averaged 18.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.9 assists in 31.5 minutes of play.
Unfortunately, Mudiay does share Wall’s weakness in jump shooting and has an additional shortcoming: playing focused, fundamental defense. He could also stand to improve his decision-making at times.
At just 19 years old, Mudiay has plenty of time to work on those weaknesses and firm up his strengths. Not all of the improvement he’ll make throughout his career will come in year one, obviously.
But if there’s one area of Mudiay’s game he should focus on throughout his rookie season, it’s three-point shooting.
The rise of the three-point shot in the NBA has been well-documented. Teams are shooting more of them as they realize how efficient of a shot they are. In turn, their opponents are trying harder to close out and contest those shots so they don’t get burned by an attempt worth 50 percent more than a normal shot.
As it stands now, Mudiay would not be covered tightly if he were standing off the ball outside the three-point line. Yes, he knocked down a mediocre 13-of-38 (34.2) of his three-point shots in China last season, but that’s a small sample size and he’s been worse in all other settings.
If Emmanuel can maintain that 34 percent number (which would actually signal improvement) while making about one trey per game in his rookie year, he’ll open so much up for himself and his team.
Opportunity
If it wasn’t already obvious, Nuggets GM Tim Connelly said Mudiay will be the starting point guard for Denver this season, per CBS Basketball’s Matt Moore.
Aside from Mudiay, Jameer Nelson and Erick Green are the only true floor generals on the roster. Nelson is a savvy veteran who always seems to carve out minutes for himself while Green doesn’t have the talent to be an impact player in the NBA.
If Mudiay is successful in his rookie year, he’ll end Nelson’s streak of 11 consecutive seasons of playing 22 minutes per game. There’s no reason a 33-year-old floor general who is several years past his prime should be taking that many minutes away from a 19-year-old point guard who has the chance to become a superstar.
What have his predecessors done?
Let’s take a look at what some recent top-10 pick, one-and-done point guards have done in their rookie seasons. For the sake of this exercise, I’m calling Mudiay a one-and-done player because he spent one year in China (as opposed to the NCAA) and was done after that season. Brandon Jennings, who went to Italy for a season after high school, qualifies as well.
First of all, you’ll notice that all of these point guards have been somewhat successful in the NBA. Each player has carved out a career as an effective player, although Knight and Jennings haven’t attained quite the level of success of Irving, Wall, Rose and Conley.
Secondly, the production they’ve attained in their rookie years is nothing special, with the exception of Irving. That’s important to note as we head into Mudiay’s debut campaign; learning the ropes of the point guard position takes time, and he won’t be an All-Star right off the bat.
Conclusion
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Mudiay’s season won’t be a failure if he doesn’t win the Rookie of the Year, but I think a spot on the All-Rookie First Team is something we can all expect from him.
Team success is almost immaterial to Mudiay’s progress right now because the Nuggets are a young team building for the future. Even if they stick near the bottom of the loaded Western Conference, that doesn’t mean Denver (and definitely Mudiay) had a waste of a season.
And, finally, here’s some statistical benchmarks I think Mudiay should aim hit in a successful rookie season.
Per-game statistical goals: 33.0 minutes, 14.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 2.5 turnovers, 1.0 steals, 42.0/32.0/70.0 shooting percentages, 15.0 player efficiency rating