Grading the Arron Afflalo Trade

Dec 1, 2014; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; NBA referee Curtis Blair (74) stands beside Denver Nuggets guard Arron Afflalo (10) after Afflalo was called for a flagrant foul 2 during the second half against the Utah Jazz at EnergySolutions Arena. The Nuggets won 103-101. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

ARRON AFFLALO. B+. This deal was no surprise, and although it may end up being one of the higher-profile moves of the day, the impact won’t truly be measurable for a couple of seasons (for the Nuggets, at least). This was a move with an eye toward the future for Denver, while Portland is looking for more immediate returns. On paper, it looks like both teams got what they wanted.. SG. Portland TrailBlazers

The Arron Afflalo trade to the Portland TrailBlazers is the rare trade that, on the surface at least, appears to benefit both teams equally. Now that the dust has settled a bit, let’s take a look at what both teams got in the end.

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PORTLAND
Portland walked away with the one and only thing they wanted from a deal with Denver: Arron Afflalo. The Blazers are firmly in the mix in the Western Conference playoff hunt and I don’t think anyone would deny they have championship aspirations, with hopes of hoisting a trophy sooner rather than later. When teams feel like they are on the verge of being able to contend for a world title, they’re more willing to overpay for immediate results, and that appears to be what Portland did with this trade. Afflalo will absolutely contribute to the team right away, as he gives Portland a solid offensive scoring presence and an above-average perimeter defensive skill set. If the Blazer manage to fight through the gauntlet that is the Western Conference and end up capturing a title this year, Afflalo’s fingerprints will likely be all over their championship run. That said, the Blazers took a gamble here. As has been widely reported, Afflalo has a player option at the end of the season, which means he could choose to walk away and leave the Blazers high and dry. If he does, that means they gave up valuable picks and a couple of throw-in players to essentially rent Afflalo for a couple of months. I think the odds of Afflalo re-signing with Portland are pretty high, especially if he gets comfortable with their system rather quickly, so I think the Blazers will walk away from this deal feeling like they made the right call.

Plus, Portland gets Alonzo Gee as a throw-in on the deal. I’ve been a big fan of Gee during his time with the Nuggets. He’s a high-energy defender who can dunk with the best of them. He’s never going to be a superstar in this league, but he can contribute quality minutes in short bursts for a team, and I think the Portland fans are really going to love him. I’m honestly sadder to see Gee leave town than I am Afflalo, but it is what it is.

DENVER
At first glance, it looks like the Nuggets acquired a lot of “stuff” in this trade. Here’s what they got:

Thomas Robinson, a 6′ 9″ power forward who is currently averaging 3.6 points and 4.2 rebounds per game (and who has never averaged more than 5 points or 5 rebounds per game in his career).
Will Barton, a 6′ 6″ shooting guard who is currently averaging 3 points, 1.1 rebounds and .9 assists per game.
Victor Claver, a 6′ 9″ small forward who has only played in 10 games this season (and only played in 21 last year).
A future first-round draft pick.
A future second-round draft pick.

The picks, especially the first-rounder, are important here. Denver was rumored to be holding out for at least a first-round pick in any deal involving Afflalo, and they got that and more. But the real value of this trade shines through when you look at the contracts of the three players the Nuggets acquired. Barton is making less than $1 million this year and Claver is due a total of $1.3 million, but both of their contracts are up at the end of this season, and I doubt they’ll be on the roster in 2015-16. Robinson is currently earning $3.6 million this season and is scheduled to make $4.6 in 2015-16. But that final year of his current contract is a team option, meaning the Nuggets will have the flexibility to decide if they want to keep Robinson around for another season. Unless he gets to Denver and immediately thrives, or they somehow manage to unload J.J Hickson as part of a draft day deal, I wouldn’t count on Robinson being part of the team’s long-term plans. That means the Nuggets will have additional roster and financial flexibility that they can use to sign young up-and-comers or try to convince free agents that Denver really isn’t a bad place to play/live.

I was firmly part of the camp the believed there was little chance Afflalo would have chosen to stay with Denver next year when his player option came up, so the fact that the Nuggets got anything of value in return for him makes the trade a win in my book. Obviously, we won’t know just how successful this trade was for Denver until we see how they leverage the roster flexibility and find out what, if anything, those draft picks become. For now, though, I think this is about as close to a win-win as any trade you’re going to find in today’s NBA.

Next: Grading the JaVale McGee Trade

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