Denver Nuggets: Individual scoring projections

The Denver Nuggets possess offensive potential that leaves fans drooling and opponents nervous. Who will score the majority of Denver’s points in 2018-19? 

Last year, the Denver Nuggets averaged 110 points per game. How good was the Mile High offense? Denver finished just 3.5 points behind Golden State for the NBA’s best scoring team (ESPN).

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Fans are excited for the  strong  returning core, plus additions of Isaiah Thomas and Michael Porter Jr.

Factor in the development of youngsters? Denver can expect to challenge for the league’s scoring crown.

Let’s break down Denver’s individual scoring projections for 2018-19.

*Note: These projections assume 113 points. Because injuries help teammates’ stats and must be factored, an allowance is made for one injured player per game (averages total 113+15 points).

Nikola Jokic:

Points per game: 19.2

Other intangible: 7.5+ assists per game

Comments: Nikola will lead the Nuggets’ offensive efforts. It won’t always come by way of super-scoring, however. With bolstered offensive talent surrounding him, Jokic will default to his strength…facilitating. Nikola should net his career high in assists (and rebounds) in 2018-19.

Nonetheless, look for the Joker to build on last year’s post-All Star scoring. Buckets will come aplenty from low and high. Jokic will shoot his feathery jumper and exploit post mismatches. Due to Jokic’s unselfish nature, dimes will occur first, however.

Jamal Murray:

Points per game: 19.1

Other intangible: Denver’s most-improved player, new fourth quarter closer

Comments: Murray will see another leap, boosting his scoring to the next level.  He will demonstrate improved shooting, handle, and off-ball intelligence in 2018-19. Despite last season’s success, Jamal’s potential left much on the table. This is a dude who could rack up multiple All Star appearances.

Look for Murray to eventually take the reins as Denver’s fourth quarter shot-maker. He has the stroke, confidence and handle to be the Nuggets’ long-term closer. Malone will let Nikola facilitate the first three quarters, and then deploy Jamal to seal the game.

Gary Harris:

Points per game: 18.6

Other intangible: Will shoot 49 FG%, 42 3P%

Comments: Harris is rapidly developing into one of the NBA’s best at his three-and-D trade. An off-ball specialist, Gary complements Denver’s play makers well. He is Jokic’s favorite cutter, padding Nikola’s assist numbers with layups and spot-up threes.

Harris’ best attribute might be his efficiency. Gary shot 48.5 FG% and 39.6 3P% in 2017-18 (ESPN). He trailed only Klay Thompson and Kyrie Irving in combined efficiency, consistency and scoring volume.

Isaiah Thomas:

Points per game: 16.9

Other intangible: Fourth quarter performance boost

Comments: Isaiah is riding the comeback avenue to prove the NBA wrong. Denver is his vehicle of choice, and the Mile High barely realizes its fortune. Look for Thomas to score in bunches and make plays for Denver’s offense. Fans are excited…IT will dominate games from the bench.

Just 15 months ago, Isaiah averaged 29 points per game with Boston (ESPN). After a tumultuous 2017-18, Isaiah signed with Denver for the veteran’s minimum.  Thomas has history proving critics wrong, and will see freedom from coach Malone in exchange for the appropriate amount of selflessness.

Will Barton:

Points per game: 16.4

Other intangible: 5.5+ rebounds, 4+ assists

Comments: A projected starter, Barton should see a scoring bump. Barton averaged 17.7 points in 40 starts last year (ESPN), so he’ll be in familiar territory. “Thrill” is a proficient shooter, cutter, and ball-handler who can score in a variety of ways.

Honestly, the projections were higher before IT arrived. Now Isaiah will compete for shots, ball-handling and minutes…possibly even a few starts. Nonetheless, Denver will be better for it. Look for Barton to take a step upward this year, despite IT’s arrival.

Paul Millsap:

Points per game: 13.4

Other intangible: Defensive quarterback, veteran leader

Comments: There is always give and take when new players arrive. Millsap’s scoring will likely drop…due to Isaiah’s acquisition and Barton’s move to start. Paul’s role remains ultra-important, however. This high-octane squad lacks defense and leadership. Fortunately Millsap provides plenty of both.

Offensively Paul will score in role-player fashion. Don’t be surprised at the occasional fourth quarter heroics, however. Millsap’s impact won’t always show in the box score. So think twice before you label him overrated.

Trey Lyles:

Points per game: 12.4

Other intangible: 5.5+ rebounds, Denver second-most improved player

Comments: Lyles is another player who could make a jump. Last year, Trey hit double-figures 38 times in 73 games. (ESPN).  Lyles scores in a variety of ways, sporting savvy post moves and a silky-smooth jumper. He performs well in big-minute situations, averaging 12.4 points when he plays 15+ minutes (ESPN).

The biggest knock on Lyles is consistency. Last year, Trey averaged just 2.8 points when he played under 15 minutes (ESPN). A team with less depth would provide more ticks. He must capitalize early and often in Denver.

The rest: 

Points per game: 12.0

Other intangible: Largely dependent on Porter Jr’s status

Comments: This group consists mostly of Plumlee, Craig, and Michael Porter Jr (when healthy). Mason and Torrey won’t play large roles offensively…their job is to boost the defense.

Porter Jr could definitely make a impact when healthy. Often compared to Kevin Durant, MPJ will splash jumpers and attack the rim. Nuggets fans are uber-excited for his future.