The Denver Nuggets got off to a scalding start in the 2018 season, winning nine of their first 10 games, but have dropped their last 3. Just how good can this Nuggets team actually be?
The Denver Nuggets are sitting at 9-4 on the young 2018 season, proving critics wrong and showing that they can be a threat in the loaded western conference. However, this team will always be a team of hot and cold stretches, as proven early in this season.
After getting of to a 9-1 start, Denver has dropped their last three games to the Memphis Grizzlies, Brooklyn Nets, and Milwaukee Bucks in heartbreaking fashion.
Denver lost to the Grizzlies and Nets by two points in games that were tied coming down to the final seconds.
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The Grizzlies and Nets both scored on their final possessions with under 5 seconds left, and the Nuggets couldn’t respond with their final possessions.
Against the Bucks, the Nuggets had no answer for Brook Lopez, who hit 8 three pointers and Denver allowed four Bucks to score 20 points.
After impressive wins against the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics, the Nuggets realize that they have all the tools necessary to compete in a crowded western conference.
However, as shown with the Grizzlies and Nets losses, they still play down to their competition in games they should win.
The Nuggets are playing exceptional defense, ranking fourth in the NBA with a 104.1 defensive rating. Coach Mike Malone has preached defense for years, and this young Denver team is starting to figure it out.
They’re also averaging 8.5 steals a game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. They could improve on their blocks however, as they’re only averaging 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 20th in the NBA.
The Nuggets offense however, has left something to be desired. A strength of the team for many years, this year it has been underwhelming. On wide open shots (defender 6+ feet away from shooter) Denver is only shooting 39.3 percent from the field, which ranks 24th in the league. On 3 point field goals with a defender 6+ feet away, the Nuggets are only shooting 32.6 percent, which ranks 28th in the league.
When you’re wide open, you should hit most of your shots. No one is perfect and no one makes every shot they take, but shooting 39.3 percent on those looks is unacceptable when you’re trying to win games.
As the Nuggets have found out, one or two shots can change the outcome of a game, and wide open looks are a great way to get easy points.
Players like Gary Harris and Trey Lyles are off to slow starts offensively as well. Harris is shooting 27.4 percent from the three point line this season, which is a far cry from his 36.5 percent career average. Lyles’s three point percentage is even lower, as he is shooting 22.7 percent from three, while his career average sits at 34.8 percent.
However, there have been positives on offense. Nikola Jokic is averaging 17.3 points and 6.9 assists per game, and has come back to life over the last two games after an unusual week that ended in him only taking one shot against the Memphis Grizzlies. Jamal Murray had a 48 point outburst against the Boston Celtics, and Monte Morris, Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez are proving to be steady presences off of the bench.
This team is missing the scoring that Will Barton and Isaiah Thomas bring to this team. They are both expected to return from injury in December, and will give the Nuggets another element to add to their offensive game.
With all of this factored together, this team has a real shot at being the second seed in the Western Conference. The Houston Rockets are in dysfunction, the LeBron James led Los Angeles Lakers are unproven, and the Minnesota Timberwolves just traded Jimmy Butler.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are on the rise but have questions surrounding them and San Antonio Spurs are competitive but don’t have much depth with Dejounte Murray‘s injury. The Portland Trail Blazers seem like Denver’s most formidable challenger for the two seed at the moment, and even they have questions surrounding them outside of Damien Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
So how good can this Denver team be? If they stop playing down to their competition, they could easily win 50 games, and maybe even more. That should be good enough for a top four seed, but at this point I firmly believe the number four seed is as low as they will fall.
This Denver team looks different, and although their not perfect, they seem to be figuring it all out.