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Post All-Star break: Rest of season projections for Denver Nuggets

By Tim D'Elia

MIAMI, FL - JANUARY 08: Head coach Michael Malone of the Denver Nuggets reacts against the Miami Heat during the first half at American Airlines Arena on January 8, 2019 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL - JANUARY 08: Head coach Michael Malone of the Denver Nuggets reacts against the Miami Heat during the first half at American Airlines Arena on January 8, 2019 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /
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As the All Star weekend arrives, teams take a week off to relax and assess their performance for the season thus far. Denver has come from the clouds to  be the second seed in a stacked western conference with a record of 39-18 entering the break.  From here on we will look at what the Nuggets post All-star break finish to the season looks like.

There are two big factors at play here, the Nuggets tough remaining schedule, as well as the Nuggets roster issues.

With 25 games remaining in the regular season, Denver has the 4th highest strength of schedule  according to tankathon.com’s formula. An average opponent winning percentage of .540 is ranked second highest in the west, only behind the OKC Thunder. As we can see the higher the strength of schedule the tougher the opponents each team will play. The good news is that in the fight for the 1st seed in the playoffs and the best finish in Nuggets franchise history one of our closest rivals has a tougher schedule than we do.

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On the other hand, Golden State’s remaining schedule is good enough for 14th overall, at .502 Golden State play a lot of middle of the road playoff hopeful teams. An upside however is that the Warriors must play the Nuggets twice more in their remaining 25 games. These games could very well control the Nuggets destiny this season.

Looking through the Warriors remaining  schedule, the Nuggets will need to induce two losses for the Warriors if they are a hope to finish 1st in the west. They play tanking teams in the Cavaliers and the Suns, as well as two more games against the recently tanking Memphis Grizzlies.

Another factor in the finish to the season is the roster. According to Chris Dempsey of Altitude Sports, Mike Malone is quoted as saying ‘The Nuggets will have a full team after the All-star break’.  This can only mean one thing, there have been several players missing through injury this season. The Nuggets starting five have only managed 1 and a half games together through 57 games thus far. Gary Harris, IT, and hopefully Michael Porter Jr. will all trot out for the Nuggets after the all-star break, and for the first time this season have a full strength squad. If the Nuggets can go 39-18 with an injury riddled roster, it bears an optimistic future for what the young Nuggets can achieve post All-Star break.

Denver’s obvious goal is to be 1st in the West after  the finish to the regular season, this will set them up for the best run to the western conference finals and the best chance to be crowned World Champions this season.

Projected western conference finishing records according to Basketball Reference:

  1. Golden State Warriors           58-24
  2.  Denver Nuggets                     53-29
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder        51-31
  4. Portland Trailblazers              49-33
  5. Utah Jazz                                  48- 34
  6. Houston Rockets                    47-35
  7. San Antonio Spurs                 46-36
  8. Los Angeles Clippers             45-37
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