With the season approaching its end, the Denver Nuggets have some items at the top of their checklist to make sure that the team is ready for the playoffs.
The Denver Nuggets are title contenders.
I mean this, of course, in a loose sense of the word. Still, there is a legitimate, if infinitesimal, chance that Denver can win a championship.
It appears as if the organization holds the same position. If they aren’t in a prime position to make a run this season, they soon will be. Coach Malone noted before the season that the Nuggets were gearing up for a 110 game season, not just an 82 game season. Even concerning this season, you never know what is possible, especially when employing the skills and magic of Nikola Jokic.
This being said, the Nuggets need everything to fall for them in a neat and orderly fashion. In order to be in the best possible position for the playoffs, they need to focus on three specific things (in my opinion, of course).
1: The Denver Nuggets need to rest Nikola Jokic
There is one reason why the Denver Nuggets have any shot at a title this year: Nikola Jokic. He is playing at an MVP level yet again and almost certainly has First Team All-NBA on lock. The Nuggets revolve around him like planets orbit a star.
He is their hub on offense by which everything operates, and he has had to act as their defensive anchor with so many blows to the frontcourt this season. He almost literally put the team on his back during stretches, and specifically in the game that will go down in history against Utah.
It’s time for Jokic to rest.
He’s done enough. The Denver Nuggets are (almost) fully recovered from a series of unlucky injuries. The Nuggets added capable depth pieces in Jordan McRae, Keita Bates-Diop, and Noah Vonleh to absorb minutes. Denver can afford to “coast” in a sense. Coach Malone can reach 14 deep into his bench at any time now and find reliable NBA caliber players.
With this luxury, Denver can afford to ease the burden of their lumbering big man.
Jamal Murray got hurt on January 15th, leaving the Nuggets down 3 starters for the next 2.5 weeks. Since then, Jokic has played more minutes than anyone else in the NBA. https://t.co/3RkfEZCdFt
— Adam Mares (@Adam_Mares) February 13, 2020
With Jokic playing so many minutes, a sort of “load management” would benefit him. He’s very clearly in incredible shape, but that doesn’t mean he should get run into the ground. Reduce his minutes in games to around 25-28 minutes a night at times to fight fatigue. A game off here and there would be acceptable as well.
There is one thing for certain. If the Nuggets want any chance at ultimate success, they need a rested, healthy, and in-rhythm Nikola Jokic.
2: The Denver Nuggets should sweep their division
It’s a daunting task, but the Nuggets could potentially win all of their division games. This is an important tie-breaker for playoff seeding. Utah is closely behind Denver in the race, and winning out the division will undoubtedly prove to be a difference-maker. The Denver Nuggets would have to beat Oklahoma City three times, Minnesota once, Portland once, and Utah twice.
It is unfortunate that the two toughest teams there are played a combined five times. The Nuggets need to both embrace this challenge as a measuring stick, as well as utilize these games as a pole vault into a top two seed in the Western Conference.
Utah ideally finishes ahead of the Clippers, forcing the LA teams to likely play each other in the first round, but if the Nuggets wish to manipulate the seeding like they did last year, beating Utah twice is their best chance for the path of least resistance to the Western Conference Finals.
3: The Denver Nuggets need to shoot more threes
Denver is a better team when they shoot more threes. They are 18-7 (.720 Winning Percentage) when hitting 11 or more threes, and 10-2 ( .833 Winning Percentage) when hitting 13 or more threes.
The Nuggets are up to 16th in the NBA in 3P% at 35.7%. Over the last 10 games before the All-Star break, Denver shot 40.3% from 3, the 2nd best mark in the NBA.
— Ryan Blackburn (@NBABlackburn) February 20, 2020
I'm hoping Denver continues to lean into their shooting during the regular season.
Jokic thrives when he’s able to kick out to open shooters on the perimeter. It’s almost impossible to double team him in either the high or low post without opening up a shot for another Nugget, who Jokic is certain to find.
The Denver Nuggets will begin to lean on the Murray/Jokic Pick N’ Roll in bigger games and especially in the playoffs. The success of that two-man game could depend on how effectively the floor is spaced. Jerami Grant has been a useful edition, being a streaky, yet still a 40% three-point shooter on decent volume. Torrey Craig hasn’t shot like he did last season, but if he can return to form there, he could be useful down the stretch.
Missing Malik Beasley will be a blow, but there’s plenty of opportunities for other players to fill that role, such as Michael Porter Jr.
Gary Harris is a concern here, but he could find value if he focuses on where he has found success. He’s shooting an abysmal 29.9% three-point percentage, but he’s found success in the corner, hitting 41.7% of his shots in that area. Filling him into a sort of guard version of P.J. Tucker might be the best solution for both Gary and the Nuggets
Overall:
Denver is knocking on the window of contention. The team is stacked with talent at all positions. If they play it right, the Nuggets could make significant noise in the Western Conference. The Nuggets just need to keep Jokic healthy, take care of their division, and hit three-point shots. This is certainly easier said than done, but it’s, at the very least, something to strive for