The season is over and the stage is set, the Denver Nuggets are taking on the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round of the 2020-21 NBA playoffs. The last time these two faced off in the postseason, the Nuggets ended up losing in seven and the series was a long one with Game 3 reaching 4OT.
Two years on and a lot has changed for these two franchises. Portland has roughly held their standing in the league before dropping off slightly this season and Denver has slowly grown into a perennial championship contender.
Funnily enough, a lot of the same weaknesses from the 2019 playoff series remain the same, the major differences are that Nikola Jokic is now an MVP-level player and Jamal Murray is out, nursing his torn ACL.
One thing remains the same though, the Denver Nuggets are elite on the offensive end, powered by their star Serbian and now flanked by several athletic finishers and shooters. Here’s a list of targets the Denver Nuggets can attack on that end of the court in their first-round series against Portland.
Where the Denver Nuggets can attack on offense: Enes Kanter
If you’ve been anywhere near a TV when the NBA is televised in the past decade, you’ve surely heard about Enes Kanter’s defense or lack thereof.
Given his size and role, he’s slow when trying to guard smaller players on the perimeter, understandable for a traditional big man, but he also routinely gets beaten by his man, and fails to help on drives.
It’s obviously not all bad, he remains gainfully employed in this league for his offensive contributions, but in a playoff setting when each possession is critical, there’s no reason the Nuggets should let him rest for each possession he’s out there.
Building on that, putting the ball in Jokic’s hands is always a wise move, so doing it while the poor defender in Kanter is out there, it’s sure to bring a smile to Denver fans. Scratch that, fans of fun basketball – Jokic scoring is good for basketball in general.
When Kanter was on the court this season, opponents score +3.3 more points per 100 possessions according to Cleaning the Glass, good for the 22nd percentile among big men, and while he was on the court, he was the single-worst big man at forcing turnovers.
What’s worse is that he’s giving up shots in incredibly poor areas. Using Cleaning the Glass’ metric, opponents are taking more shots at the rim and behind the arc when Kanter is out there. Yes, he’s limiting mid-range attempts, but they’re generally understood to be the worst shot in basketball.
Oh, and he allows more transition opportunities for the opposition team when he’s on. Eat your heart out Denver.
Where the Denver Nuggets can attack on offense: The Portland Trail Blazers as a team
This season, the Portland Trail Blazers have the 29th ranked adjusted defensive rating according to dunksandthrees.com, a metric that weights up a team’s points allowed per 100 possessions against the strength of opposing offenses.
The only team behind them is the Sacramento Kings. That’s bad.
Too niche of a metric? That’s alright, Cleaning the Glass ranks them 29th as well when taking our garbage time minutes. Still not convinced, pure counting stats from basketball-reference has them 29th as well.
I will concede, Jusuf Nurkic has only played 37 games for them and while he’s no world-beater, he’s the best defensive option at center for this team. When he’s on the court, the Trail Blazers jump up slightly over ten points per 100 possessions, a much more respectable number.
But how is a solid defender like Nurk bringing them up this much? Or is it moving in the other direction, is he the sole link holding together their defense like the world’s worst papier-mâché? Sidebar, did you know that’s how you spell it? Learn something every day.
When Nurk steps out, they obviously lose his rim protection, but you realize how much he’s covering for the poor defenders elsewhere. CJ McCollum is small for his size and can be easily bullied, Carmelo Anthony swings between disinterest and apathy, Derrick Jones Jr. has failed to grow from his smaller role in Miami, and Anfernee Simons might be the worst defender in the entire league.
I know what you’re thinking: “Wow, a lot of blanket statements there! Where’s the evidence?”
In this first-round matchup, the Denver Nuggets have the luxury of a tall, strong scorer in Michael Porter Jr. Now it might be hard to make out, but try and get a shot of his mouth every time one of those players gets switched onto him, he might literally lick his lips.
Where the Denver Nuggets can attack on offense: Carmelo Anthony
I might’ve been too hard on my “swings between disinterest and apathy” comment on Melo before, he is a former Denver Nugget, after all, I should be nice.
Or I could not.
When he’s on the court, opponents make 5.8 more points per 100 possessions than when he sits, good for the tenth percentile among forwards in the league per Cleaning the Glass. He has a 115.8 defensive rating when he plays according to NBA.com’s official stats and for every minute he’s on, opponents score exactly one point in the paint (I thought that was neat).
In the past, Melo’s defense hasn’t mattered too much since he was the alpha on offense, and his contributions on that end more than make up for any mistakes or misgivings on the defense. As a role player in his 17th season, not so much.
Similar to when Kanter is on the court, Denver should be targeting Melo at every opportunity when he’s playing. Targeting him could be putting him on an island against MPJ or Jokic one-on-one or forcing him to help away from shooters, or posting up Jokic with Melo as the strong side defender.
But how often will the Nuggets be able to target Melo and friends?
If you’re trying to project the Blazers’ playoff rotation, last season is a good facsimile. Against the Los Angeles Lakers in their five-game loss, the Melo averaged 35.6 minutes per game, Hassan Whiteside (then backup center) played 21.2 and Anfernee Simons played 20.5.
Let’s assume a lot of Melo’s minutes will be taken away and given to their offseason acquisition Robert Covington, he still found time to average 24.5 minutes this season next to a crowded frontcourt.
There’s going to be time, just like in the Kanter section, when these guys will have to play. Denver, eat your heart out.