This year the Denver Nuggets secured the fourth seed in the West, drawing the fifth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers. This is a rematch of the 2019 Western Conference Semifinals matchup in which Portland won in seven games.
This season, the teams matched up three times with the Nuggets taking the first two by a total of six points. In the final game of the season, the Trail Blazers dominated a game they needed to win while the starters of Denver played a max of 17 minutes.
These two teams played each other on Apr. 21 in which the Nuggets squeezed out a one-point victory. In this game, they had just lost Jamal Murray a few days prior and had already signed Austin Rivers. This game was back and forth all night and is likely a good indication of how this series will play out.
Enjoy my scouting report on the potential matchups of this series, beginning with the guards and ending with the battle of old friends; Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic.
Denver Nuggets: Guard matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers
The health of Will Barton and Austin Rivers is one of the biggest storylines of the guard matchup during this season. Barton is nursing a hamstring injury and Rivers has been diagnosed with a non-COVID disease.
Will has already been ruled out of Game 1. With the incredible scoring potential of Portland’s lead guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, the Nuggets will need their guards to defend to the best of their ability.
While Facundo Campazzo is an experienced point guard, he is likely not going to be able to defend such elite guards for 35 minutes per night. Monte Morris and Markus Howard will need to come in and play hard when they are asked to provide relief. Morris is likely Denver’s best option on both sides of the floor, especially if Austin Rivers is unable to go.
Lillard is an incredible scorer who seems to have unlocked the fourth and almost fifth level of offense with his ability to hit shots from near half-court. This season he is averaging 28.8 points per game on just under 40 percent from the three-point range.
He’s a player that you just have to hope gets uncomfortable, so he doesn’t take over the game. The Nuggets will need to throw big bodies at him to wear him down and continue to attack him on the defensive end of the floor.
McCollum is the perfect guard to play off him as well, as an effective secondary option and elite defender to take the pressure off Lillard. He is a deadly shooter off the catch and is a fearless finisher at the rim for his size. If Denver can keep Portland’s elite guard duo to under 60 points per game, they likely have a greater chance to win this series.
Portland also has an entertaining guard coming off the bench in Anfernee Simons who is averaging just under eight points on a deadly 42.6 percent from behind the arc. Simons is someone who can easily play off both Lillard and McCollum and knock down shots off the catch as well as put the ball on the floor and attack the basket.
The Denver Nuggets will not be catching any breaks defending these effective scorers out of the guard position.
The addition of Normal Powell has been incredibly effective for Portland as it gives them another ‘3-and-D’ type wing. Since joining the team, he has averaged 18.8 points per game on 41.1 percent from three.
He is a bit undersized but plays bigger than his height standing at 6-foot-3. Powell is an active defender who will likely split time with Robert Covington defending Michael Porter Jr. With his ability to be an effective perimeter defender I can see him matching up with Porter for most of the time.
Porter stands at 6-foot-10 with an active handle and the ability to effectively get his shot off at all three levels. This season he has taken a leap in his development, especially after losing Jamal Murray for the season. Porter has stepped into Murray’s role as the secondary scorer to Jokic with ease, scoring over 23 points per game without him on the floor.
Robert Covington is a physical wing who can knock down open shots but more importantly take your best weapon out of the game. In this matchup, if the Blazers decide to go small he will likely be facing Aaron Gordon for most of his time on the court. Gordon has not played a large role since coming to the Denver Nuggets and it is unlikely that role increases with the defensive matchup of Covington breathing down his neck.
The signing of Powell also slides the aging Carmelo Anthony to the sixth man role, which fits him better at this stage in his career. Anthony has been more effective in spurts this season and can still get his own shot in the midrange and the post. The athleticism and length of Denver should give him problems, which makes him an extreme X-factor in this series.
If Powell, Covington and Anthony can outplay Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr, the Nuggets might be in trouble.
Nikola Jokic vs Jusuf Nurkic is a storyline that writes itself, as the two were supposed to be the bigs of the future of the Denver Nuggets. Nurkic requested a trade after Jokic’s dominant rookie season and he did not want to compete with his minutes.
Now Nurkic has fought off a plethora of injuries and is anchoring the defense of the Portland Trail Blazers and the Joker is competing for an MVP trophy.
The real X-factor in this matchup is the battle of the backup bigs. While Jokic is not expected to play any less than 40-42 minutes, those eight minutes could be big swings for Portland.
JaVale McGee will need to run the floor and protect the rim and be prepared to battle Nurkic or Enes Kanter. McGee will need to be efficient in the pick-and-roll in his time on the floor, with the offense needing to go through their guards.
Kanter is a physical center who is known to wear on defenders. This season he is averaging 11 points and 11 boards on 24 minutes per game. He’s an effective rebounder and finisher who can put a game away with his production off the bench. While he is not quick enough to hang with Aaron Gordon if the Nuggets go small, he does however provide an interesting matchup if Portland decides to run the ‘twin towers’ lineup with Kanter and Nurkic.
While Nikola Jokic is better overall than both of these bigs, he is tasked with facilitating the Nuggets entire offense and will have two strong bigs waring him out on the other end of the floor. His recent slimming and increased endurance will definitely be put to test this round. It will be interesting to see how Jokic and Nurkic handle each other, it is definitely something to keep your eye on in this series.