Denver Nuggets: Regrading the Aaron Gordon trade

At the start of Game 4 in the second-round series against the Phoenix Suns, the Denver Nuggets made a concerted effort to get some early touches for Aaron Gordon.

The forward had struggled to make an impact in the series thus far and without Jamal Murray, Michael Malone knew there was no in which Denver come away as victors without heavy contributions from the rest of the roster.

Gordon was the ball-handler for some of the early plays and was used as the screener for strong-side actions as Nikola Jokic surveyed the floor as he does so well. The team wasn’t forcing the issue, but with Aaron in the actions, it was only a matter of time before he found an opening in the defense.

And then, with just over eight minutes on the clock in the first, Gordon found a favorable post-up position against Devin Booker, and the Nuggets cleared out. He immediately turned over his right shoulder, spinning baseline, and went in for a layup. It missed.

A few possessions later, he curled middle around a Monte Morris screen as Jokic found him under the basket. Jae Crowder had recovered enough to make him think before he shot the layup. It missed.

For Gordon, that same outcome was all too familiar for him as Phoenix’s defense was too much. He ended the series 16-39 from the field and 0-8 from 3-point range in a four-game sweep.

It’s unfair to judge a player from two bad offensive possessions, but it was the same story across the Suns series. It made some Denver fans wonder, was the Aaron Gordon trade as much a success as it was when it happened?

Denver Nuggets: Regrading the Aaron Gordon trade: Initial returns

Following the 2021 trade deadline, right after Aaron Gordon was traded from the Orlando Magic in exchange for Gary Harris, R.J. Hampton, and draft capital, it looked like a smooth move by Tim Connelly.

To be honest, it was a smooth move. One of Denver’s biggest holes was at forward after Jerami Grant signed with the Detroit Pistons the offseason prior. To win in the playoffs, the Nuggets needed an answer for the big wings and forwards of the world and AG was a perfect replacement.

His stats took a hit since moving over from Orlando but that was because he went from a top offensive option on a bad team to the fourth, sometimes fifth, option on a contender.

He put up averages of 10.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 8.2 shots a night in the 25 games with the Nuggets. Those 25 games saw the Nuggets go on a 19-6 run, including a 9-1 stretch, and even finding success after Jamal Murray went down with a torn ACL.

It hurt losing Harris, he was the primary defensive option on guards which put a lot of pressure on PJ Dozier (who was hurt for the entire playoffs) to take that task.

But back to AG. His offensive game fit right in as well – as the fourth option, he could cut in and around Denver’s main points of attack. It married well with Jokic’s vision and there were always a few easy layups to be had with those two.

Gordon’s usage dropped from 25.3 percent in Orlando to 16.4 percent in Denver but his points per 100 shot attempts leaped from 108.1 (a bottom third percentile mark) to 114.9 (average for forwards) per Cleaning the Glass.

His average two-point field goal distance shrunk from 7.92-feet to 5.17-feet with Denver and the number of shots at the rim he took went up as well according to PBP Stats.

The looks were getting easier, AG’s shot profile was cleaner, and the Denver Nuggets were benefitting from it. When he was on the court in those 25 regular season games, the Nuggets were +5.1 points better per 100 and the team’s effective field goal percentage got a bump as well via Cleaning the Glass.

The lineups next to Jokic, Michael Porter Jr, and either Jamal Murray/Will Barton, or Facundo Campazzo/Austin Rivers were scorching hot, scoring over 128 points per 100 using Cleaning the Glass’ garbage time filter. For reference, the Brooklyn Nets three superstars plus Joe Harris and Jeff Green was near the top of the league at 136.4.

But it was more than just stats, the AG experience passed the eye test in the regular season. Gordon is a great, athletic cutter and he went from a middling Orlando team to one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. It looked fun and like all Jokic-led offenses, it was hyper-efficient.

Denver Nuggets: Regrading the Aaron Gordon trade: What went wrong?

But it all fell off in the playoffs. What Denver was able to get away with during the regular season, it failed to do in the playoffs.

The win against the Portland Trail Blazers was incredible (especially in retrospect when looking at how better the Suns ended up being) and AG was riding a bit of a hot streak. His 60 percent 3-point shooting was unsustainable but as the third option, it was found money.

The issue was against Phoenix when Monty Williams just dared Gordon to punish them. Monty also wasn’t mucking around with single-coverage on Jokic like Terry Stotts was. Gordon’s shot wasn’t falling (that’s putting it lightly) and we essentially saw what had gone wrong in Orlando.

Without Jamal and a focused defense on him, AG was asked to do more with the ball when Jokic or MPJ struggled against a solid defense. On top of that, without a player to create openings in the defense, other players weren’t sinking in, making Aaron Gordon’s life a little bit harder.

The eye test was… not great. We all saw him struggle to get by defenders like Crowder and Mikal Bridges, but even on the occasional mismatch, that’s not who he is as a player.

Denver Nuggets: Regrading the Aaron Gordon trade: Was it a success?

I recently got into an argument with a friend about this very topic. He, an LA Lakers fan, dismissed the trade altogether, saying it was the wrong move. I don’t think it’s that black and white.

It doesn’t look great after the series he just had, but the AG trade is still a resounding success. When the trade went through, all the benefits of shrinking his offensive role were there and his defense was a must-have for these Nuggets.

One of the turning points in the first-round series was when AG took the task of guarding Damian Lillard, using his length to bother the sharpshooter when all other options failed.

It’s unfair to critique him just against a sample size of a Finals-bound Phoenix team and an offense without Jamal. When they did play together, it was beautiful and it worked.

Additionally, Aaron Gordon has two more seasons left on his contract which factors into the trade. He won’t sign elsewhere like Jerami Grant after one season if he wants to move on to a different situation.

The issue is, with Jamal likely sidelined for most, if not the entirety of next season, we won’t be able to measure AG’s success to its maximum until the following season. I hate to close most of these offseason articles with something along the lines of ‘Murray’s injury really hurts’ but Murray’s injury really hurts.

That small window of winning basketball we saw after the deadline and while Murray was on the court is a sign of the future of this ball club. It may only be small, but we saw what a true title-contending Nuggets team looked like and it’s now only a matter of time until we see it again.