Nikola Jokic deserves to win the 2021-22 NBA Most Valuable Player award. The Denver Nuggets center deserves to go back-to-back with the award because not only has his game grown since last season, he’s winning games for an injury-riddled roster.
But there’s quite a large possibility that he won’t win the award and there are plenty of deserving candidates in the league today.
Joel Embiid is currently the favorite to win with Giannis Antetokounmpo heading the Milwaukee Bucks’ offense and defense, Luka Doncic on a tear after the All-Star break, and both of the Phoenix Suns backcourt players in the conversation after sealing the best record in the NBA.
But writing for Nugg Love, a Denver Nuggets blog, might have slightly impaired my view. My Twitter feed is full of pro-Jokic MVP tweets and I wonder if I was writing for The Sixer Sense, would I think Embiid is a no-brainer MVP? Would it be the same for Behind the Buck Pass?
So I’ve decided to list three reasons why Nikola Jokic shouldn’t be the MVP in the 2021-22 season:
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic doesn’t have the same storyline as other candidates
This past season, Nikola Jokic was the league’s MVP, he had all the respect he deserved and there’s even a cohort of the league who believe the Denver Nuggets could have made a strong title push if at full strength.
With Jamal Murray sidelined for the entire 2021-22 season, the focus was on Jokic, a potential Michael Porter Jr. breakout, and seeing if the team has the right supporting cast around their star Serbian.
Without any realistic title chances this season and everyone’s MVP puff pieces already being published after his first MVP, there isn’t much of a narrative backing for Jokic.
Compare that with Joel Embiid who has an extremely interesting story before he even reached the NBA. Embiid was scouted through the Basketball Without Borders program in Africa and when he did get drafted third overall, it was to The Process-era Philadelphia 76ers who had their own intriguing story.
An MVP trophy in Embiid’s cabinet will give plenty of ammunition to the pro-Sam Hinkie/tanking camp and act as a final note in The Process (a title would be better).
If Giannis wins, it’ll be his third MVP trophy, joining a very short list of players to ever win the award three times. After leading his Bucks to a title in 2021, voters won’t be scared away from underwhelming postseason appearances after his first two MVP seasons.
Chris Paul, the Point God, has never won the MVP trophy in his 17 seasons but has tallied plenty of votes. Despite this, he is once again leading his team to a strong showing in the Western Conference. Awarding him the league’s highest individual honor would be somewhat of a lifetime achievement award as well as a single season one.
A solid storyline should mean nothing when it comes down to ‘value’ in the Most Valuable Player award but it always does. LeBron James has succumbed to narrative plenty of times in his career as voters always lean towards the fun, upstart story.
Denver Nuggets: Fans are becoming desensitized to his statistical brilliance
This season, Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.3 points per game, 13.5 rebounds, 7.9 assists with 1.4 steals a night while shooting 58 percent from the floor, 35 percent from the 3-point line, and 82 percent from the free throw line.
He’s leading the league in offensive win shares, box plus/minus, value over replacement player, and player efficiency rating. When he’s on the court, the Nuggets have a 118.1 offensive rating, just under 10 points worse per 100 possessions according to Cleaning the Glass. For context, Denver’s offense goes from 25th worst in the league to 1.5 points better than the rest of the league when Jokic is out there.
Did you read all of that?
At some point, we all know that Jokic is incredible and he’s defying what we thought we knew about offensive production. Voters are going to hear the case from multiple teams, campaigning for their players, and you can pick and choose stats to make certain players look better than others.
It can be too overwhelming.
A rebuttal to this point is that Jokic passes the eye test with flying colors. It’s not like he’s some statistical anomaly that you can’t understand, you watch him play the games and his on-court production is just as dominating against the rest of the league.
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic likely won’t make a deep playoff push
Giannis Antetokounmpo won back-to-back MVP trophies can you could almost hear the disappointment in the national media’s voice when he didn’t deliver.
The first time, Kawhi Leonard completely dominated the Greek Freak in a seven-game series while the next time, the Bucks were embarrassed by the Miami Heat in the 2020 bubble.
It pretty much ruled out Giannis from winning it the following season, regardless of what he did. He went on to win an NBA championship in 2021 but there was almost no way he was going to win the MVP trophy before that.
Yes, I understand it’s a regular season award but the voters always treat the previous season’s playoffs as an entree before the regular season voting.
Jokic carried an undermanned Nuggets squad past the Portland Trail Blazers in the 2021 playoffs but was severely outclassed in the second round against the eventual Western Conference Champion Suns.
Without Jamal Murray and potentially even Michael Porter Jr., will the Denver Nuggets face a similar playoff fate? Jokic is incredible and will likely power the Nuggets past their first-round opponent but unless the bracket breaks perfectly, they’re going to face a very good team in the second round and it might be too much.
But hold on, I’m trying to list reasons why Nikola Jokic shouldn’t be the MVP and I’ve come up with playoffs, which doesn’t count towards voting, statistical fatigue, which might be made up, and narrative which has been an issue ina ward voting for a long time.
Maybe Nikola is the MVP after all.