Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction and odds for Game 5 (Nuggets close it out)

Apr 23, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) looks to pass while Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) defends during the second quarter of game four of the 2023 NBA Playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 23, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) looks to pass while Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) defends during the second quarter of game four of the 2023 NBA Playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Timberwolves did everything they could to lose Game 4 of their series with the Denver Nuggets, but Anthony Edwards ended up making a huge shot in overtime to seal the win and help the team avoid the sweep.

Denver didn’t play its best basketball, but the Wolves nearly lost the game despite being up 12 points with 2:35 left in the fourth quarter. Denver eventually tied the game, but it couldn’t stop Edwards and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in overtime.

Minnesota can at least say that it didn’t get swept because things are going to get much tougher at Ball Arena in Denver, where the Nuggets are 34-7 this season.

The Nuggets won the first three games of this series by nine or more points, and they are favored by nine in Game 5.

How should we bet on this matchup?

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds, spread and total

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction and pick

I can’t back the Timberwolves to win this game on the road, or even cover given the fact that they are just 14-16 ATS as road underdogs this season.

Minnesota was bailed out by a huge game by Edwards, and even with the Nuggets playing clearly their worst game of the series, Minnesota needed overtime to get the win in Game 4.

The Nuggets are elite at home, going 23-15-1 against the spread as home favorites, winning those games by an average margin of 10.2 points per game.

This postseason, Denver is fourth in effective field goal percentage out of 16 teams while the Wolves are 10th. Denver is also dominating the boards in this series, grabbing 54 percent of the rebounds.

While Minnesota won the battle on the glass in Game 4, I don’t see that happening in Denver.

The Nuggets win and cover to advance to the Western Conference semifinals.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.