The Nuggets pulled out an impressive Game 7 victory on Saturday night, beating the Clippers 120-101 to move on to round 2 of the NBA playoffs. Denver started slowly, but dominated the second and third quarters, forcing the Clippers to wave the white flag down 30+ points in the fourth quarter.
But the Nuggets don’t have much time to enjoy this win and bask in their glow, as they just have one day off before they start the Western Conference Semifinals on Monday night in Oklahoma City.
It’s a daunting task and a ridiculously quick turnaround after just battling the Clippers for seven games. The Thunder, meanwhile, swept away the Grizzlies in four games, wrapping up that series last Saturday. By the time this one tips off on Monday night, the Thunder will have had eight days of rest.
As if they needed that advantage. The Thunder are one of the youngest and deepest teams in the league. They can beat you in a variety of different ways, with a vast combination of young players who bring different things to the table.
Nuggets must find way to survive minutes while Jokic rests
This is going to be a major talking point throughout the series as the Nuggets lean so heavily on their top six players, who already have a ton of tread on their tires. The Thunder are younger and fresher, and coach Mark Daigneault will commonly go as many as 10 or 11 guys deep on his bench.
In Game 7 against the Clippers, Nikola Jokic didn’t have his best game. He actually struggled a bit against a tough defense and had a poor game by his standards. He was also almost certainly a bit tired after playing so many minutes and carrying such a heavy burden throughout the series.
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, finding rest for Jokic is hard, and things aren’t about to get any easier against the Thunder. For years now, the Nuggets have struggled badly whenever Jokic isn’t on the floor, and that was no different this season. Even in the first round, though Jokic barely sat, the team was -33 in the brief moments he sat.
That is not going to be tenable against OKC. The Thunder went 68-14 this season, then swept their first-round series. They are no joke. Denver went 2-2 against them this season, but they are going to have to bring their A-game to compete in this series, and that includes the time while Jokic is on the bench.
The Thunder have waves and waves of players inside and outside. They have the likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and a great starting lineup, but the bench lineups are also extremely strong for this team. The drop-off when their best players sit is not that pronounced, certainly nothing like what the Nuggets face.
So, when Jokic does rest, it’s not like the Thunder are going to be trotting out a subpar lineup. They will have five superb players on the floor who are ready and looking to punish Denver. Daigneault and his staff know all about the disastrous non-Jokic minutes, and they are definitely going to emphasize trying to punish the Nuggets and dominate those minutes.
David Adelman and company are going to need a counter. These games and this series are going to be tight, and if the Nuggets want to win, they are going to have to crush the margins. That means solving something that has been a bit of an unsolvable problem, staying competitive while Jokic is off the floor. If not, and the Thunder can go on big runs in those minutes, we may be in for a short series.