Thanks to the NBA’s 65-game threshold for awards, much of the discourse around Sunday’s regular season finale has revolved around Nikola Jokic’s status, as he needs to play in order to be eligible for MVP and All-NBA. While that is certainly important for history, legacy, and the overall good and credibility of the league, it underscores the massive value of the game.
The Nuggets are facing the Spurs on Sunday to wrap up the regular season, and sure, each team has long ago wrapped up a playoff berth, but Denver’s seeding and both teams’ path to a championship are still to be determined.
San Antonio has locked up the 2-seed in the Western Conference, but the Nuggets need to win in order to clinch the 3-seed. Otherwise, with a loss and a Lakers win, LA would take the 3 and Denver would fall to the 4.
That should be a huge deal for both the Spurs and the Nuggets. By winning, Denver would guarantee a second-round series against the Spurs, whom they’ve played well against, and they would ensure that they don’t face the heavily-favored Thunder until the Western Conference Finals.Â
For the Spurs, it’s basically the opposite. If they win, they can knock the Nuggets to the other side of the bracket, creating a relatively easy path where they only have to face one of the Nuggets or Thunder in the Conference Finals.
Only two teams seeded lower than three have won the championship
Beyond that, if the Nuggets drop to fourth, they’ll be facing long historical odds of winning it all. Only two teams in the history of the NBA have won it all being seeded lower than third. One was the 1968-69 Celtics, who had Bill Russell as a player/coach at the time. And the other was the 1994-95 Rockets, who acquired Clyde Drexler at the trade deadline.
The point being: the regular season matters a lot, and it’s important to finish in the top three. Outside of that, it’s extremely rare to win a title and has basically only happened with extraordinary circumstances, which wouldn’t apply to the Nuggets this season at all.
So, there may be some temptation to rest everyone, not worry about seeding, and let the chips fall where they may, but that’s not the best route for this team. You could even argue that losing would offer an easier round one matchup with the Rockets as opposed to the Timberwolves.
But the goal isn’t to get out of round one, it’s to win the title. And it should be crystal clear to the Nuggets and their fans that the best way to accomplish that goal is by winning on Sunday, locking up the 3-seed in the West, and setting up for an all-time battle with the Thunder in round three.