As the calendar flips from March to April, the NBA is rapidly approaching award season. The major awards become talking points that can dominate the discourse as early as October, but now the picture is coming into focus as teams have fewer than 10 games left in their respective seasons.
The one award that always gets the most hype and attention is the most prestigious of them all, the MVP Award. MVP debates over the past few seasons have gotten highly contentious and borderline toxic at times. This season’s race hasn’t caused as much animosity as in years past, but it has still been one of the closest races in years.
The debate rages over two main contenders, the favorites for most of the season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder and Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets. Jokic is the reigning MVP and he is going for his fourth win in five seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander has never won the award, but finished 2nd in voting last season and was 5th for the 2022-23 season.
Coming into the season, the narrative favored SGA as he has been ascending and now it’s “his time” to take the mantle. Since Jokic has won multiple times, he must overcome voter fatigue and talk of his legacy and place in history. We’ve known all along that Jokic would have to clear a higher bar than ever to win the award for a fourth time and that’s exactly what we’ve seen play out over the course of the season.
SGA’s lead in MVP race over Jokic looking insurmountable
The battle in the NBA.com MVP Ladder has been back and forth recently, with the two-horse race tilting back and forth at the top. But SGA took the top spot back from Jokic a few weeks ago and has been holding on ever since. In the latest edition of the Ladder, Shaun Powell has SGA in the top spot with Jokic in 2nd.
This has been the case for several weeks in a row and with just two weeks left in the regular season, it’s going to be nearly impossible for Jokic to pull back in front. Jokic missed five straight games recently with elbow and ankle injuries and that may have been the final nail in the coffin.
He was already facing an uphill battle, to begin with, and missing a key chunk of the season just before the voters make their final decision is not going to help. Meanwhile, SGA has continued to accumulate stats and wins for the Thunder and his lead over Jokic has continued to grow.
SGA has climbed to -3000 to win the award on DraftKings and -5000 on FanDuel. Needless to say, it would take a near miracle for Jokic to get back in the mix, but he has pulled off miracles before. The Nuggets still have seven games remaining in the regular season and Jokic will have a chance to make one final, lasting statement.
He’s already averaging a triple-double and is in the top 3 in almost every meaningful statistical category. It’s hard to fathom what more he can do or prove, but with Jokic, you can’t rule anything out. Maybe he has one more final push in him, but at least for now, he seems destined to finish in second place for the second time in five years.
Fear not though, Nuggets fans. If there’s any consolation, the last time Jokic was snubbed and failed to win the MVP Award, the Nuggets went on a run and won the NBA Finals with Jokic taking home Finals MVP. I think I speak for all Nuggets fans when I say that would be a perfectly acceptable outcome.