The Nuggets have been forced to play without Nikola Jokic for the past three games and for the most part, it hasn’t been pretty. It’s not an ideal situation, but if anything, these games have hammered home an obvious point, this team will go as far as Jokic can take them.
The other players will play important roles, but Joker is the straw that stirs the drink and they need him playing his best to have any real shot. It’s essential to make sure that he is healthy and fresh at all costs. If that means holding him out longer, sacrificing seeding, and possibly even homecourt advantage, then so be it.
But a bigger possible concern is that Jokic’s injury situation is about more than just rest. He has looked tired lately, as has the entire team. They’ve clearly been running out of gas and with Jokic’s crazy nightly burden, it made a lot of sense to give him some time off.
Yet, we saw him limping up and down the court in Boston, then saw him fall hard on his elbow in Oklahoma City. He has been noticeably hampered by these ailments at times on the court, and while his overall play doesn’t seem like it’s suffering too much, there might be more to it.
Jokic’s 3-point shooting has cratered since elbow injury
Perhaps the most notable change is something that was pointed out by Kevin O’Connor on a recent episode of his podcast. Since injuring the elbow on his shooting hand, Jokic is just 6/30 from the three-point line and 31-43 from the free-throw line.
Jokic is shooting well over 40% on threes for the season and over 80% from the stripe. These are very tangible dips since the injury that happened directly to the arm he shoots with. He’s good enough to dominate games without shooting, but to make a deep playoff run, he’ll need to rediscover that form and it may not come simply by taking a few games off.
Three-point shooting seems to have been a point of emphasis this season for Jokic. He has always been solid on low volume, but teams in the playoffs last year sagged off him, daring him to launch up threes, and Team USA employed some similar tactics in the Olympics.
As a result, Jokic has come back a sniper, putting up an elite three-point shooting on top of everything else he does. Being a marksman from the outside opens up even more for the Nuggets' offense and gives defenses one fewer option. It’s a great wrinkle and something that should prevent teams from sitting back and clogging the paint in the playoffs.
But if Jokic’s elbow continues to be a problem and the shot doesn’t return, that’s going to spell big trouble for Denver. They don’t have enough shooting and scoring around Jokic, so if he becomes a non-shooter or even a hesitant shooter, it’s going to muddy the waters even further. It’s not time to panic just yet, but it’s something to monitor closely.