Sure, there are plenty of rational reasons to explain why Nikola Jokic declined a max contract extension this summer, but the fact remains, he’s set to enter next offseason with only one year remaining on his deal.
We’ve seen this exact situation play out with other star players, most recently De’Aaron Fox of the Kings. As Tim McMahon of ESPN pointed out on the Hoop Collective podcast, Fox turned down an extension, choosing to wait until this summer, but ended up requesting a trade in the meantime and was dealt to the Spurs before ever signing that contract.
Like it or not, Jokic is now in a precariously similar position. As of now, there’s no reason to believe he won’t sign the max extension next summer, tacking on three years and $282 million to stay in Denver.
But a lot can change between now and then. The offseason moves that the front office has made look good on paper, but there’s no guarantee that this season will go well. There’s certainly a chance that the other veteran stars show some decline, the young players don’t develop as much as we hope, and the new additions aren’t seamless fits.
Another season that doesn’t have the Nuggets looking like true title contenders may have Jokic starting to look around and wonder if the grass would be greener elsewhere. It may seem out of character for the Joker, but at the end of the day, he wants to win more than anything.
If he doesn’t think his best chance to do that is in Denver, why would he commit his future to the Nuggets?
A lot more reason for optimism with Jokic than with Fox
While the Jokic and Fox situations mirror each other in many ways, there are also many important differences. Jokic has won three MVP Awards in Denver, plus a championship. He’s on his way to building one of the best basketball resumes in the history of the game. The last couple of seasons haven’t gone as well as anyone hoped, but it’s not like the Nuggets have been failing Jokic for his whole career.
Things weren’t exactly so rosy for Fox in Sacramento. During his seven and a half seasons with the Kings, he made one All-Star Game, had one third team All-NBA appearance, and the team played in the playoffs once, losing in a hard-fought first-round series.
The Kings are not a top-tier NBA franchise, and Fox isn’t a top-tier NBA player. Both sides seemed to come to these realizations at some point, and the trade to San Antonio came together. That’s not the case at all with Jokic and Denver.
They’ve mostly done right by their franchise player (nobody is perfect), and he has been afforded every opportunity to succeed in Denver. Nobody knows what this next season will bring and exactly what Jokic is thinking, but there’s no reason for Nuggets fans to panic just yet.