By now, we're all well aware of how bad the Nuggets' salary cap picture looks going into the 2026-27 season. At the moment, they're set to be well past the luxury tax threshold and deep into the first apron, and they haven't even re-signed Peyton Watson in free agency. But to avoid the repeater taxes, an extra lever that kicks in if they are over the tax for three out of four years, would force the Nuggets to face a potentially ugly scenario.
If the Nuggets try to get cheap and dump salary again this summer instead of paying the tax bill, which the Kroenkes can certainly afford, it could get really ugly, really fast. Truly, how can the Nuggets possibly improve if they just continue to dump players to save money?
The band can't stay together in any form to avoid the tax
The Nuggets were eliminated in round one by a Minnesota Timberwolves team that looked like they had the best backcourt in the NBA every time a new Wolf jumped off the bench. The defense was bad, and it's hard to imagine much improvement unless they retain both Watson and Aaron Gordon, two missing defensive pieces the Nuggets could have used badly.
But they'll come at a price. If the Nuggets want to get under the tax threshold for a reset and keep Watson, say, at a potentially low $20 million next year, they would need to trim approximately $37 million in salary to dodge the extra tax bill that would come with the repeater tax threshold at approximately $200 million. Teams typically pay quite a bit more than just a one-to-one ratio on their spending over the line.
But they would still have four roster spots to fill. They'd save $8 million by cutting Jonas Valanciunas, but they're still $29 million over with five spots to fill.
The Nuggets would still need to dump Cam Johnson and Christian Braun next year to trim $44 million and change in salary. And then the Nuggets would have to fill those spots, too. Who do they bring in to fill those spots? Certainly not the caliber of players that can help them get past the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, or New York Knicks.
Next season is bleak if the Nuggets avoid the tax
There's not much good to look forward to next season if the Nuggets go the cheap route. They'd be wasting a year of Joker's prime, and the championship window already looks more closed than it did before this year started.
It would be a tough pill to swallow as a fan, knowing the ownership group could spend to win. Fans are still hoping they decide to pay the penalties, at least some of them, or it could be an ugly season.
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